Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:05:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x76b8…6aa1 crypto 1147 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 76d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$16,579 (-17%) realized −$16,579 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%381W / 766L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day33.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$125
7 days−$125
14 days−$2,861
30 days−$3,795
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$17,235
other 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -16.5% -24.4% 41% 41% -29.8%
≤30d 302 -19.7% -27.4% 30% 28% -20.5%
≤90d 1147 -21.0% -28.6% 33% 31% -25.2%
all 1147 -21.0% -28.6% 33% 31% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.6% 31% -25.2%
10% ← realistic here -35.4% 28% -32.3%
15% -41.6% 26% -38.9%
20% -47.4% 22% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -22% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$60 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16,579
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses381 / 766
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1147 / 1147
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$87
Trades / day33.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1147 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$49 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$30 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $104 −$50 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$28 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $104 −$24 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 23 $62 +$56 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$15 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 23 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $73 +$28 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 23 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$11 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $8 +$11 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $83 −$39 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $63 −$20 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $85 −$8 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $42 +$56 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $27 −$10 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 11 $64 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $84 +$14 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $29 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $54 −$10 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $32 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$38 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $64 +$33 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $32 +$94 +295%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $43 +$52 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $139 −$36 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$3 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 11 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $106 +$38 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $59 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $73 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $83 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $76 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $22 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records