Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:12:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x76b5…b86b other 125 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$68 (-0%) realized −$66 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate7%9W / 113L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$309per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$37
politics 18% −$7
economics 11% −$4
sports 6% −$20
world 3% −$1
culture 3% −$2
tech 2% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.8% -24.7% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 20 -5.1% -14.1% 10% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 116 -4.4% -13.5% 8% 4% -9.7%
all 122 -4.2% -13.3% 7% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 4% -9.7%
10% -21.6% 4% -18.3%
15% -29.2% 4% -26.2%
20% -36.1% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×5.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$272
Realized−$66
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses9 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)122 / 125
History coverage93d
Avg bet$309
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $196 $195 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana reach $120 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $66 $66 −$0 (-0%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 57¢ 49¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $344 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $355 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $358 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 11 $62 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $50 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $603 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $311 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $58 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $63 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $154 +$1 +1%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $59 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $38 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 29 $68 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $280 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $624 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $627 −$1 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 19 $291 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $594 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 17 $281 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $302 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 14 $275 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $280 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $297 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $296 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $308 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 09 $293 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 09 $871 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $289 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 07 $291 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 06 $295 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $849 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $865 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $311 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $588 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $287 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $885 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $588 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 29 $598 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $288 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 28 $314 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $315 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $286 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $298 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 4h
Will Solana reach $120 in June? BUY No 100¢ $66 15h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $49 36h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $13 37h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $49 37h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $12 39h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $57 2d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $68 3d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $68 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $196 5d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 6d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 6d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $62 8d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $62 8d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $50 8d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $50 9d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 13d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 13d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $48 15d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $48 15d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $43 16d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $43 16d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 17d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $58 17d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 19d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 19d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 20d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $271.97 · official $271.98 (match) · 361 history records