Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:55:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x76ae…725f crypto 258 markets active 1h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$279 (-2%) realized −$281 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate63%159W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days−$25
14 days−$1
30 days−$177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$345
other 2% −$18
world 2% −$7
sports 1% +$4
politics 0% −$56
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +13.3% +2.5% 58% 42% -18.9%
≤30d 92 -2.3% -11.6% 63% 25% -13.6%
≤90d 246 -7.3% -16.1% 64% 20% -11.6%
all 254 -9.0% -17.6% 63% 20% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 20% -11.8%
10% -25.5% 16% -20.3%
15% -32.7% 15% -28.0%
20% -39.3% 13% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$16 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$281
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses159 / 95
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)254 / 258
History coverage252d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 254 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Reya FDV above $70M one day after launch? Yes 53¢ 62¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? Yes 22¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+48%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 82¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes 27¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$4 +14%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $5 +$13 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$7 +138%
British Columbia Lions vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $101 −$48 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$19 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$8 +146%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$9 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $75 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $55 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $75 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $75 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 09 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$6 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 07 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 05 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 04 $50 +$3 +6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 02 $50 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $30 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 28¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $13 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 33h
British Columbia Lions vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats BUY British Columbia Lions 46¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $50 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $51 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $50 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $45 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $35 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $54 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $6 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.00 · official $14.98 (match) · 655 history records