Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:30:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
76 0x76ae…38e9 crypto 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 406d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,071 (+24%) realized +$2,075 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate41%15W / 22L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$167
7 days−$210
14 days−$610
30 days−$610
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$223
other 35% −$277
sports 14% +$2,170
politics 5% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -23.6% -30.9% 50% 17% -25.6%
≤30d 7 -34.5% -40.8% 43% 14% -44.4%
≤90d 23 +12.3% +1.6% 43% 35% +26.1%
all 37 -0.6% -10.0% 41% 32% +9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 32% +9.4%
10% -18.6% 30% -1.0%
15% -26.5% 24% -10.6%
20% -33.7% 22% -19.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +21% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$351 vs −$172 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

406d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized+$2,075
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses15 / 22
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage406d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $70 $66 −$4 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $246 −$198 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $104 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$5 +12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $519 +$53 +10%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $256 −$29 -11%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $44 −$43 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $407 −$400 -98%
Will 1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw? May 10 $511 −$500 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 10 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 10 $24 +$16 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 10 $131 −$5 -4%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $655 +$2,713 +414%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 09 $207 +$193 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 22 $318 −$314 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 22 $300 +$128 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 22 $207 −$204 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 22 $300 −$297 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 22 $200 +$529 +264%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 22 $150 +$228 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Mar 22 $310 −$209 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Mar 22 $160 +$332 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Mar 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 16 $83 +$25 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 16 $110 −$110 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? Mar 16 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Feb 10 $309 −$192 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Feb 10 $65 +$12 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Feb 09 $250 −$249 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Feb 09 $260 −$74 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Feb 09 $200 +$57 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Feb 09 $108 +$3 +3%
Green Party (MDG) wins 4% or more of vote in Norwegian election? Aug 26 $82 −$3 -4%
Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? Aug 26 $185 $0 +0%
Will FrP win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electi May 10 $187 −$15 -8%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-05-08? May 08 $620 +$965 +156%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? May 08 $397 −$164 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $48 42m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $72 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $113 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $40 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 10h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $72 13h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 90¢ $572 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $519 25h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 15¢ $81 26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 15¢ $146 26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 20¢ $205 26h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $44 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 39¢ $407 10d
Will 1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $511 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $24 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $126 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.50 · official $66.50 (match) · 120 history records