Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:29:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
76 0x76ae…098c other 41 markets active 3h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$3 (+5%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%9W / 28L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$1
sports 22% +$18
world 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +18.4% +7.1% 24% 24% +21.2%
≤30d 37 +18.4% +7.1% 24% 24% +21.2%
≤90d 37 +18.4% +7.1% 24% 24% +21.2%
all 37 +18.4% +7.1% 24% 24% +21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.1% 24% +21.2%
10% -3.2% 22% +9.6%
15% -12.5% 22% -1.0%
20% -21.1% 22% -10.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +91% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×4.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses9 / 28
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)37 / 41
History coverage6d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND Jun 19 $5 +$16 +313%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -53%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 18 $1 $0 +14%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +291%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +344%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$13 +1290%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$14 +442%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 12h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 12h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 24¢ $5 12h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 13h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 14h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 15h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 15h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 12¢ $1 16h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 4¢ $2 20h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 38h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 38h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 38h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 38h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 38h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 38h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 0 Norway? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.70 · official $2.70 (match) · 53 history records