Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:49:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
76 0x76aa…bd02 crypto 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+2%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate88%7W / 1L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -9.5% -18.1% 88% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 8 -9.5% -18.1% 88% 0% -8.1%
≤90d 8 -9.5% -18.1% 88% 0% -8.1%
all 8 -9.5% -18.1% 88% 0% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -8.1%
10% -26.0% 0% -16.9%
15% -33.1% 0% -24.9%
20% -39.7% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses7 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 26 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $56 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 26 $55 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $54 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 26 $52 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 25 $48 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 25 $45 +$3 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $56 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $55 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $54 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $52 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $48 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $45 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records