Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:58:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
76 0x76aa…eff9 sports 179 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$13,607 (+17%) realized +$12,179 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate63%113W / 66L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$438per market
Trades / day47.1pace
Fees−$682est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,426
7 days+$5,927
14 days+$6,162
30 days+$6,019
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$3,290
sports 46% +$8,703
world 2% +$190
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +23.7% +12.0% 74% 56% +13.9%
≤30d 120 +5.8% -4.3% 65% 40% +0.3%
≤90d 179 +15.5% +4.5% 63% 40% +2.3%
all 179 +15.5% +4.5% 63% 40% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.5% 40% +2.3%
10% ← realistic here -5.5% 22% -7.5%
15% -14.6% 13% -16.4%
20% -23.0% 9% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$583) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$50 · ×2.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.71 per $1 lost it wins $4.71
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12,179
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses113 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$682
Open positions0
Markets (closed)179 / 179
History coverage38d
Avg bet$438
Trades / day47.1
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $87 $0 −$87 (-100%)
Al Shabab Saudi Club vs. Al Ittihad Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 Under 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ecuador vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Over 14¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Will Cruzeiro EC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol end in a draw? Yes 61¢ 0¢ $122 $0 −$122 (-100%)
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? No 14¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Will Toronto FC vs. Inter Miami CF end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
United States vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Under 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: FC Porto (-1.5) FC Porto 42¢ 0¢ $71 $0 −$71 (-100%)
Will SC Braga vs. CF Estrela da Amadora end in a draw? No 63¢ 0¢ $135 $0 −$135 (-100%)
United States vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Over 62¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Türkiye 39¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-05-23? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-09? No 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Toronto FC vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 1.5 Under 11¢ 0¢ $91 $0 −$91 (-100%)
Will FC Porto vs. CD Santa Clara end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $155 $0 −$155 (-100%)
Cruzeiro EC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 3.5 Over 5¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 3.5 Under 3¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 0.5 Under 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $457 +$167 +36%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $165 −$15 -9%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 +$1 +26%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $254 −$4 -2%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $1,351 +$623 +46%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $954 +$157 +16%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $690 +$300 +44%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $4 +$1 +14%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $737 −$76 -10%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $400 +$56 +14%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $602 −$34 -6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,208 +$27 +2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 −$5 -2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $406 −$9 -2%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $70 +$3 +4%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $883 +$547 +62%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $1,201 +$185 +15%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $1,201 +$412 +34%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $236 +$7 +3%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $3,502 +$795 +23%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $897 +$221 +25%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $183 +$44 +24%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $200 +$23 +12%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $405 −$25 -6%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,868 +$650 +35%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $920 +$179 +20%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,001 +$95 +10%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $1,527 +$305 +20%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $167 +$45 +27%
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $18 +$1 +6%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 10 $140 +$187 +134%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $200 +$630 +315%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $767 −$28 -4%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 10 $46 −$1 -3%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $601 +$394 +66%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 08 $362 +$61 +17%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 08 $82 +$8 +10%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $1,887 +$71 +4%
Curaçao vs. Aruba: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $28 +$20 +72%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 07 $55 +$34 +62%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 06 $17 $0 -2%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $80 +$60 +76%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 06 $250 +$37 +15%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $75 +$11 +15%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) May 31 $58 +$3 +5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $615 −$436 -71%
United States vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 May 31 $1,210 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 8¢ $625 0m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 5¢ $57 1m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $200 1m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $200 1m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 36¢ $150 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $165 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Japan 70¢ $4 3h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 55¢ $3 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 62¢ $9 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 64¢ $54 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $9 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $54 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 26¢ $186 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 26¢ $190 3h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 88¢ $201 6h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 88¢ $13 6h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 88¢ $5 6h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 88¢ $88 6h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 88¢ $5 6h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 88¢ $20 6h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 88¢ $494 6h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 88¢ $88 6h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 88¢ $500 6h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 88¢ $10 6h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 91¢ $271 6h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 88¢ $35 6h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 88¢ $13 6h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 88¢ $25 6h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 88¢ $88 6h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 94¢ $47 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1866 history records