Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:12:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
76 0x76a8…19f1 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$28 (+2%) realized +$29 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$356per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$275now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$22
world 40% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.8% -10.3% 50% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 4 +1.3% -8.3% 75% 0% -8.0%
≤90d 4 +1.3% -8.3% 75% 0% -8.0%
all 4 +1.3% -8.3% 75% 0% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 0% -8.0%
10% -17.1% 0% -16.8%
15% -25.1% 0% -24.8%
20% -32.4% 0% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.83 per $1 lost it wins $5.83
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$275
Realized+$29
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage14d
Avg bet$356
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in June 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $276 $275 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? Jun 26 $320 $0 +0%
Will US annex any territory in 2026? Jun 26 $314 −$5 -2%
Aleksandar Pavlovic: 1+ goals Jun 14 $432 +$28 +6%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 14 $435 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in June 2026? BUY No 92¢ $277 1h
Will there be no de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $320 45h
Will there be no de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $320 46h
Will US annex any territory in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $309 47h
Will US annex any territory in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $314 2d
Aleksandar Pavlovic: 1+ goals BUY No 94¢ $432 13d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $438 13d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $435 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $275.40 · official $275.40 (match) · 9 history records