Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
76 0x76a7…5195 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$67 (+9%) realized +$67 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate68%15W / 7L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$45
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$56
sports 45% +$90
other 5% −$2
crypto 5% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -12.4% -20.7% 75% 50% -26.5%
≤90d 17 -23.6% -30.9% 59% 41% -15.7%
all 22 +13.6% +2.8% 68% 55% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.8% 55% -0.8%
10% -7.1% 45% -10.3%
15% -16.0% 23% -19.0%
20% -24.3% 23% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +51% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$23 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses15 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage138d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $45 −$45 -100%
Prostejov: Andrej Martin vs Vit Kopriva Jun 02 $17 +$3 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $41 +$12 +28%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $46 +$2 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 16 $40 +$5 +12%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? May 05 $30 +$3 +9%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 25 $42 +$25 +60%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? Apr 23 $82 +$3 +4%
Flyers vs. Islanders Apr 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5 Mar 30 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 30 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? Mar 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 30 $34 +$33 +97%
Spurs vs. Mavericks Mar 30 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Mar 30 $18 −$18 -100%
Pelicans vs. Knicks Mar 27 $79 +$23 +30%
Raptors vs. Bulls Mar 24 $27 +$10 +35%
Trail Blazers vs. 76ers Mar 18 $19 +$54 +285%
Knicks vs. Bulls Feb 25 $19 +$4 +24%
Qatar Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Feb 22 $10 +$26 +257%
Heat vs. Pelicans Feb 18 $14 +$14 +104%
Qatar Total Open, Qualification: Priscilla Hon vs Camila Osorio Feb 07 $22 +$7 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $43 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 89¢ $45 10d
Prostejov: Andrej Martin vs Vit Kopriva BUY Vit Kopriva 85¢ $17 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $41 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 95¢ $46 30d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $40 44d
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? BUY No 92¢ $30 56d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $82 65d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY Yes 62¢ $42 71d
Flyers vs. Islanders BUY Islanders 58¢ $33 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $34 82d
Pelicans vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 77¢ $79 86d
Raptors vs. Bulls BUY Raptors 74¢ $27 91d
Trail Blazers vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 26¢ $19 95d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? BUY Yes $4 106d
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $33 113d
Knicks vs. Bulls BUY Knicks 81¢ $19 115d
Qatar Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas BUY Tsitsipas 28¢ $10 120d
Heat vs. Pelicans BUY Heat 49¢ $14 127d
LoL: SK Gaming vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season BUY SK Gaming 51¢ $18 131d
Qatar Total Open, Qualification: Priscilla Hon vs Camila Osorio BUY Osorio 76¢ $22 132d
Spurs vs. Mavericks BUY Mavericks 30¢ $12 133d
Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5 BUY Under 53¢ $14 137d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.90 · official $42.90 (match) · 50 history records