Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:19:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
76 0x76a6…8ec9 sports 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$21 (+5%) realized +$23 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate72%18W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$3
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$34
other 38% +$39
crypto 2% −$1
world 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)+16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -13.0% -21.3% 58% 58% -7.5%
≤30d 13 -9.5% -18.1% 62% 62% -3.5%
≤90d 19 +37.3% +24.2% 68% 68% -7.0%
all 25 +28.6% +16.4% 72% 68% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.4% 68% -4.1%
10% +5.2% 60% -13.3%
15% -4.9% 40% -21.7%
20% -14.3% 12% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +70% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$23
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses18 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage137d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-1.5) France 80¢ 76¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $35 +$16 +46%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $4 +$3 +83%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $3 −$2 -98%
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 +$5 +42%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $9 +$3 +32%
Mensik vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $3 +$1 +46%
Khachanov vs. Quinn: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $3 +$1 +44%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $15 +$8 +52%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 +$7 +32%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-03? May 06 $32 +$7 +23%
Jodar vs. Minaur: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Apr 25 $25 +$6 +23%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 24 $15 +$5 +36%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 23 $15 +$6 +41%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 11 $2 +$14 +809%
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5 Mar 31 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group S Feb 15 $36 +$5 +15%
Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 09 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Ricky Martin perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $8 +$1 +18%
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho Feb 09 $15 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Feb 06 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Feb 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 80¢ $50 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $35 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 27h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $4 30h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 32¢ $3 5d
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) BUY Shimabukuro 56¢ $10 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $12 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 75¢ $9 5d
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Joao Fonseca 71¢ $6 6d
Mensik vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 68¢ $3 6d
Khachanov vs. Quinn: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 69¢ $3 6d
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 73¢ $10 6d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $15 6d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $20 7d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 81¢ $32 50d
Jodar vs. Minaur: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 81¢ $25 59d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 73¢ $15 59d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 71¢ $15 72d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 83d
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $40 125d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group S SELL Vitality 100¢ $41 126d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group S BUY Vitality 87¢ $36 127d
Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP? BUY Yes 93¢ $20 133d
Will Ricky Martin perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 133d
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho SELL Yes 100¢ $21 133d
Will Ricky Martin perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? BUY Yes 85¢ $8 133d
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho BUY Yes 72¢ $15 133d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 136d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 136d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.81 · official $47.81 (match) · 47 history records