Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:57:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x76a5…fd23 crypto 243 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (305 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$74 (-6%) realized −$75 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%122W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day305.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$48
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (305 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 242 -9.3% -17.9% 50% 46% -13.0%
≤30d 242 -9.3% -17.9% 50% 46% -13.0%
≤90d 242 -9.3% -17.9% 50% 46% -13.0%
all 242 -9.3% -17.9% 50% 46% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover305.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.9% 46% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 45% -21.3%
15% -32.9% 44% -28.9%
20% -39.5% 38% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses122 / 120
Open positions1
Markets (closed)242 / 243
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day305.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 242 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Down 75¢ 90¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 114 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$13 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$9 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.97 · official $3.83 · 430 history records