Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:04:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
76 0x76a4…5a0b crypto 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 625d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$187 (+4%) realized +$187 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate66%39W / 20L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$2
politics 41% $0
crypto 12% +$14
sports 4% +$174
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.4% -7.4% 100% 0% -7.4%
≤30d 6 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 0% -7.1%
≤90d 10 +2.8% -7.0% 100% 0% -7.1%
all 59 +4.9% -5.0% 66% 8% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 8% -6.3%
10% -14.1% 7% -15.2%
15% -22.4% 5% -23.4%
20% -30.0% 2% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$0 · ×17.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×35.29 per $1 lost it wins $35.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

625d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$187
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses39 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage625d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? No 96¢ 95¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $36 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 June 1-7? Jun 09 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 09 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 25-31? Jun 02 $16 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? Jun 02 $17 +$1 +3%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? May 16 $15 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 16 $17 +$1 +3%
Will BNB reach $700 in March? Apr 26 $14 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 26 $17 $0 +3%
Will Solana reach $120 in February? Mar 28 $13 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? Mar 28 $18 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $150 in January? Feb 26 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January? Feb 26 $16 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 27 $14 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 27 $17 $0 +1%
Clippers vs. Hornets Nov 23 $196 +$174 +89%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Nov 22 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Nov 22 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Solana dip to $170 in September? Oct 27 $17 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $175 in September? Oct 27 $23 +$1 +3%
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? Sep 28 $39 +$1 +4%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 25 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Solana reach $180 in June? Jul 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? Jun 29 $21 +$1 +6%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? May 27 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 27 $20 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Apr 24 $12 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 24 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 18 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025? Mar 18 $5 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 18 $10 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by January 31, 2025? Jan 19 $3 +$1 +20%
Will Ethereum hit $3,750 by January 31, 2025? Jan 19 $3 +$1 +28%
Will the Titans win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 09 $22 $0 -1%
Will the Panthers win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 09 $522 −$1 -0%
Will the Falcons win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 09 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Browns win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 07 $515 −$1 -0%
Will the Bears win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 07 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Rams win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 07 $0 $0 +50%
Will the Giants win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 07 $515 −$1 -0%
Will the Raiders win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 07 $520 −$1 -0%
Will the Patriots win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 07 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Jaguars win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 08 $21 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 24 $6 +$2 +40%
Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Oct 19 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Oct 19 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Oct 19 $491 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? BUY No 96¢ $37 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? BUY No 97¢ $36 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $36 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? BUY No 93¢ $19 21d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 June 1-7? BUY No 98¢ $15 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 25-31? BUY No 97¢ $16 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? BUY No 97¢ $17 30d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? BUY No 97¢ $15 62d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY No 97¢ $17 62d
Will BNB reach $700 in March? BUY No 98¢ $14 91d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? BUY No 97¢ $17 91d
Will Solana reach $120 in February? BUY No 99¢ $13 120d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? BUY No 99¢ $18 120d
Will Solana reach $150 in January? BUY No 99¢ $15 150d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January? BUY No 99¢ $16 150d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $14 180d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $17 180d
Clippers vs. Hornets BUY Clippers 53¢ $196 216d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? BUY No 97¢ $26 242d
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? BUY No 97¢ $15 242d
Will Solana dip to $170 in September? BUY No 99¢ $17 272d
Will Solana dip to $175 in September? BUY No 97¢ $23 272d
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? BUY No 96¢ $39 305d
Will Solana reach $250 in July? BUY No 98¢ $38 336d
Will Solana reach $180 in June? BUY No 100¢ $38 363d
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? BUY No 99¢ $16 395d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? BUY No 94¢ $21 395d
Will Solana reach $210 in April? BUY No 99¢ $15 429d
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? BUY No 98¢ $20 429d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $20 465d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.51 · official $36.51 (match) · 152 history records