Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:56:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x76a2…1f3c sports 724 markets active 22h ago coverage 544d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,476 (-2%) realized −$1,476 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%253W / 467L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$20
14 days−$48
30 days−$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$1,092
other 2% −$429
politics 0% +$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -17.5% -25.4% 32% 32% -17.2%
≤30d 80 -18.7% -26.5% 29% 29% -24.6%
≤90d 316 +17.2% +6.0% 40% 40% -13.5%
all 720 +6.4% -3.7% 35% 35% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 35% -11.5%
10% -12.9% 34% -20.0%
15% -21.4% 33% -27.7%
20% -29.1% 31% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$47 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

544d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,476
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses253 / 467
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)720 / 724
History coverage544d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 720 Trades
no open positions (288 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Macarthur FC end in a draw? Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $21 −$1 -5%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 +$21 +137%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 +$11 +216%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$4 +86%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $39 +$25 +64%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$11 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$7 +76%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $17 −$8 -43%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$1 -10%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $15 −$1 -6%
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will CD La Serena win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $13 −$13 -98%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $10 +$29 +291%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will AA Ponte Preta win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Venezuela vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Will BK Hacken win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $13 +$34 +260%
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $4 −$4 -98%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Degerfors IF win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $3 −$3 -98%
Degerfors IF vs. IF Brommapojkarna: O/U 2.5 May 31 $5 −$1 -27%
BK Hacken vs. Hammarby IF: O/U 3.5 May 31 $5 +$4 +87%
Vasteraas SK vs. IFK Goteborg: O/U 2.5 May 31 $5 +$5 +89%
Will CD Moquegua win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $4 −$4 -98%
Will CA Platense win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $4 +$20 +510%
Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $5 +$26 +510%
Will CS Cienciano win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $5 +$17 +322%
Will Caracas FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will CA Juventud win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Millonarios FC vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 3.5 May 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Grêmio FBPA vs. Montevideo City Torque: O/U 2.5 May 26 $5 +$7 +143%
Will CA Lanús win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $4 −$4 -98%
CA Lanús vs. Mirassol FC: Both Teams to Score May 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 AND United States vs. Australia: BUY 19¢ $20 21h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 51¢ $20 21h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $21 22h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Mexico vs. Korea R BUY 9¢ $15 37h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $5 38h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 38h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score AND Canada BUY 23¢ $26 42h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 92¢ $36 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $16 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $9 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $5 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $5 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $65 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $39 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 23¢ $8 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 17¢ $9 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1256 history records