Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:23:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x76a0…fb5b sports 177 markets active 0h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate24%43W / 133L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$201now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$139
7 days+$67
14 days+$660
30 days+$660
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$336
other 29% +$521
crypto 4% −$70
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -36.5% -42.5% 33% 17% +5.0%
≤30d 16 -11.9% -20.3% 31% 25% +32.8%
≤90d 29 -15.8% -23.8% 28% 24% +26.1%
all 176 -21.4% -28.9% 24% 22% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.9% 22% -8.4%
10% -35.7% 20% -17.1%
15% -41.9% 19% -25.1%
20% -47.6% 16% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$22 · ×3.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$201
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses43 / 133
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)176 / 177
History coverage106d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $197 $201 +$4 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $207 +$193 +93%
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai Jun 27 $24 −$23 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $32 −$31 -98%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $80 −$10 -12%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $64 −$62 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $38 +$64 +167%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $56 −$9 -16%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $68 −$25 -37%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 +$107 +105%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $45 −$6 -12%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$2 -4%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $38 −$3 -8%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $65 −$64 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $572 +$556 +97%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $44 −$43 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal (Featherweight, M Apr 25 $40 −$39 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Montel Jackson (Bantamweight, Main Apr 25 $42 −$2 -4%
Barcelona Open, Qualification: Sebastian Ofner vs Patrick Kypson Apr 12 $35 −$5 -14%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Ch Apr 12 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $179 +$167 +93%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $1 $0 -50%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $1 $0 -40%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $1 $0 +20%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $1 $0 +45%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $3 $0 -14%
Credit One Charleston Open: Jessica Pegula vs Diana Shnaider Apr 03 $41 −$2 -4%
UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Tyrell Fortune (Heavyweight, Prelim Mar 28 $207 −$207 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Casey O'Neill vs. Gabriella Fernandes (Women's Flywei Mar 28 $114 +$93 +82%
UFC Fight Night: Ricky Simon vs. Adrian Yanez (Bantamweight, Prelims) Mar 28 $144 −$30 -21%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $1 $0 -25%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $1 $0 -17%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $2 $0 -8%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $3 $0 +9%
Valencia vs. Olympiacos B.C. Mar 24 $225 −$225 -100%
Bucaramanga: Johan Nikles vs Benjamin Torrealba Mar 24 $20 $0 -2%
Sao Paulo: Alex Barrena vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Mar 24 $20 $0 -2%
Miami Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Taylor Fritz Mar 24 $207 −$157 -76%
Miami Open: Sebastian Korda vs Martin Landaluce Mar 24 $55 −$55 -100%
Split: Daniel Rincon vs Maxim Mrva Mar 24 $258 +$171 +66%
Split: Dimitar Kuzmanov vs Nerman Fatic Mar 24 $129 −$103 -79%
Miami Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Victoria Mboko Mar 23 $47 +$4 +9%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO3) - EM Mar 23 $52 −$30 -58%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro Mar 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Alicante: Edas Butvilas vs Pol Martin Tiffon Mar 23 $126 −$91 -72%
Naples: Geoffrey Blancaneaux vs Vitaliy Sachko Mar 23 $122 +$96 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $44 4m
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Rafael Fiziev 100¢ $400 6m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 35m
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 51¢ $2 35m
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 51¢ $30 38m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $27 39m
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 51¢ $33 42m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $33 45m
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Michel Pereira 22¢ $24 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $23 1h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 51¢ $142 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $13 37h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 52¢ $12 37h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 37h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 50¢ $12 37h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 47h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 47h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $28 47h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $30 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $30 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $81 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $70 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $70 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $16 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $64 4d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $64 6d
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 100¢ $102 7d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 57¢ $2 8d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 36¢ $36 8d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $47 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.89 · official $200.89 (match) · 557 history records