Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:38:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x769d…084e world 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 269d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate40%20W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$1
other 20% +$3
politics 13% $0
tech 5% $0
culture 5% $0
sports 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.4% -9.9% 27% 9% -9.5%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 41% 6% -9.4%
≤90d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 39% 6% -9.4%
all 50 -0.7% -10.1% 40% 4% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 4% -9.3%
10% -18.7% 2% -18.0%
15% -26.6% 2% -25.9%
20% -33.8% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

269d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses20 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage269d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $29 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +17%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $28 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $53 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $45 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $6 −$1 -21%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $8 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $29 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $46 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $29 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $57 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $57 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? Jan 31 $5 +$3 +61%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Jan 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Nov 30 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 28 $3 $0 +1%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 27 $19 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 25 $2 $0 -9%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 18 $6 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? Oct 17 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Oct 14 $7 $0 +2%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Oct 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 02 $2 $0 +10%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 27 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 25 $6 $0 +1%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Sep 25 $3 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $29 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $8 5h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $6 5h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $15 5h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $29 7h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $9 20h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $21 20h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $29 22h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $13 28h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $17 28h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $29 29h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $29 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $29 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $32 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $32 39h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $4 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $24 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $1 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $26 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $28 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $23 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $2 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $25 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $23 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $3 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.14 · official $29.14 (match) · 155 history records