Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7690…c04f world 94 markets active 16h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$886 (-13%) realized −$887 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate13%11W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$397now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$77
7 days−$770
14 days−$826
30 days−$849
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 94% −$830
other 4% −$50
crypto 1% −$43
finance 1% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -13.8% -22.0% 15% 12% -23.1%
≤30d 75 -15.3% -23.3% 15% 12% -23.4%
≤90d 83 -21.6% -29.0% 13% 11% -23.9%
all 83 -21.6% -29.0% 13% 11% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.0% 11% -23.9%
10% -35.8% 11% -31.2%
15% -42.0% 10% -37.8%
20% -47.7% 8% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$17 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$397
Realized−$887
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses11 / 72
Open positions11
Markets (closed)83 / 94
History coverage48d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $308 $306 −$1 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $35 $38 +$3 (+10%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $15 $13 −$3 (-17%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 59¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $51 −$3 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 16 $220 −$74 -34%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +55%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $330 −$9 -3%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 15 $130 −$8 -6%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $100 −$2 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,219 +$67 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 14 $55 +$22 +40%
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 14 $37 −$3 -7%
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +25%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $45 −$9 -21%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $19 −$2 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 14 $91 −$15 -17%
Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -10%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 −$7 -69%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $102 −$39 -38%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $48 −$30 -63%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $100 −$18 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $105 −$23 -22%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 13 $10 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $40 −$9 -24%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$5 -50%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $120 +$148 +123%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $35 +$27 +77%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $10 −$4 -41%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $205 −$76 -37%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $25 −$12 -48%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? Jun 11 $20 −$5 -25%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $24 −$7 -27%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 11 $80 −$31 -38%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $120 −$18 -15%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $30 −$19 -64%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $674 −$344 -51%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $50 −$22 -44%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $65 −$13 -19%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $52 −$20 -39%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $25 −$6 -24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $55 −$13 -23%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $665 −$187 -28%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 11 $5 $0 -6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $15 −$3 -17%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $15 +$14 +96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 -5%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $2 $0 -9%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $33 15h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 17h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 24¢ $25 32h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 14¢ $51 32h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 22¢ $80 39h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 39h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 27¢ $100 39h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 27¢ $100 39h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $40 2d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 53¢ $10 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $11 2d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $289 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 39¢ $200 2d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $397 2d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 39¢ $400 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 62¢ $286 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 55¢ $122 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 57¢ $100 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 71¢ $98 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $100 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $100 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $396.66 · official $396.65 (match) · 495 history records