Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:20:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

76
0x768f…c7bd
crypto · 825 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$542 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,759 · open −$1,257
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5,361
Realized+$1,759
Unrealized−$1,257
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses477 / 321
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions27
Markets (closed)798 / 825
History coverage236d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 27 History 798 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81
7 days−$5
14 days+$974
30 days+$1,357
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 50¢ 92¢ $1,565 $2,865 +$1,299 (+83%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? No 96¢ 99¢ $287 $298 +$11 (+4%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 88¢ 90¢ $263 $270 +$7 (+3%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 8¢ $1,565 $266 −$1,299 (-83%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 84¢ 97¢ $169 $195 +$26 (+15%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $181 $192 +$12 (+6%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? No 79¢ 93¢ $157 $186 +$28 (+18%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 73¢ 84¢ $146 $167 +$21 (+14%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 81¢ 94¢ $126 $146 +$20 (+16%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 72¢ 99¢ $72 $99 +$27 (+38%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 92¢ 98¢ $92 $98 +$6 (+6%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 81¢ 94¢ $81 $94 +$14 (+17%)
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No 88¢ 92¢ $88 $92 +$4 (+5%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 64¢ 90¢ $64 $90 +$26 (+41%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? No 25¢ 18¢ $100 $74 −$26 (-26%)
Obama arrested before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $71 $71 +$1 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Yes 40¢ 10¢ $200 $47 −$152 (-76%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $34 $36 +$2 (+7%)
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? No 67¢ 93¢ $7 $9 +$3 (+39%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 92¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 70¢ 82¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+18%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 64¢ 78¢ $6 $8 +$1 (+22%)
Natural Disaster in 2026? No 54¢ 78¢ $5 $8 +$2 (+44%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 55¢ 77¢ $5 $8 +$2 (+40%)
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? No 60¢ 72¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $4 −$2 -47%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $522 +$9 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $544 −$100 -18%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $136 +$64 +47%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 12 $566 +$9 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $791 −$16 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 12 $65 −$48 -74%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $18 +$2 +12%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $286 $0 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $19 +$34 +180%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $200 +$3 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Jun 09 $17,053 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $403 +$40 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $64 +$4 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 07 $442 +$55 +12%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $68 −$47 -69%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 06 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $756 +$234 +31%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $122 +$101 +83%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $331 +$9 +3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,001 +$497 +50%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $292 +$18 +6%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $9 +$1 +12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $234 +$65 +28%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $167 +$33 +20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $656 +$126 +19%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $485 +$41 +8%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 31 $350 −$156 -45%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $94 +$6 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 29 $9 +$1 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 29 $967 +$115 +12%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 25 $217 +$25 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $852 +$36 +4%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $15 +$5 +37%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $95 +$15 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 21 $294 +$78 +26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 21 $188 +$4 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $90 +$10 +11%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $207 +$91 +44%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 15 $196 +$4 +2%
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22? May 13 $14 +$4 +29%
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? May 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 13 $274 +$26 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $194 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 10 $18 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 10 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 09 $8 +$2 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 39% −$1,101
politics 29% −$17
crypto 14% +$1,180
other 10% −$220
finance 7% +$596
sports 1% +$57
tech 0% +$6
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 0m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $2 39m
Obama arrested before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $9 1h
Obama arrested before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $23 1h
Obama arrested before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $38 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 53¢ $202 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $198 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 92¢ $368 17h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 85¢ $170 17h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 91¢ $182 19h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $16 25h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 27¢ $270 25h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? SELL No 9¢ $17 26h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $295 26h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $224 30h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 8¢ $77 31h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 28¢ $43 31h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 28¢ $0 31h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 28¢ $96 31h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 19¢ $13 32h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 19¢ $179 32h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 35¢ $175 40h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 37¢ $187 40h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 40h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? SELL No 60¢ $180 41h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? BUY No 68¢ $136 41h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? BUY No 60¢ $180 42h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $49 44h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $41 44h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $2 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -3.6% -12.8% 47% 21% -9.4%
≤30d 43 +6.5% -3.6% 74% 44% -5.1%
≤90d 155 -10.2% -18.8% 63% 40% -5.6%
all 798 -9.4% -18.1% 60% 51% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 51% -5.9%
10% -25.9% 43% -14.9%
15% -33.1% 20% -23.1%
20% -39.6% 11% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,361.03 · official $5,361.13 (match) · 3378 history records