Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:15:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
76 0x768b…bf0f sports 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,691 (-18%) realized −$4,691 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%11W / 16L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$923per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$267est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$2,994now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,437
7 days+$1,437
14 days+$1,437
30 days+$1,437
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$10
other 29% −$4,736
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +41.2% +27.8% 67% 67% +69.2%
≤30d 3 +41.2% +27.8% 67% 67% +69.2%
≤90d 27 -16.1% -24.1% 41% 41% -28.5%
all 27 -16.1% -24.1% 41% 41% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 41% -28.5%
10% -31.4% 41% -35.4%
15% -38.0% 41% -41.6%
20% -44.1% 37% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$1,346) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -59% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$824 vs −$863 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$2,994
Realized−$4,691
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses11 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$267
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage71d
Avg bet$923
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Under 63¢ 63¢ $2,994 $2,994 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $189 −$186 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $793 +$770 +97%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $674 +$853 +127%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-03-08? May 04 $508 +$574 +113%
Will Iwaki FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $511 −$503 -98%
Spread: FC Porto (-1.5) Apr 26 $96 −$95 -98%
Celtics vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 110.5 Apr 25 $355 +$367 +103%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 24 $548 −$539 -98%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5 Apr 24 $501 +$486 +97%
Toronto FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 2.5 Apr 22 $498 −$490 -98%
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5 Apr 20 $2,496 +$2,730 +109%
Spread: Suns (-3.5) Apr 17 $1,000 −$986 -99%
CA Tigre vs. CSyD Macará: O/U 1.5 Apr 17 $380 +$820 +216%
CA Tigre vs. CSyD Macará: O/U 2.5 Apr 17 $2,045 +$1,558 +76%
Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5) Apr 16 $95 −$93 -98%
Seattle Sounders FC vs. Tigres de la UANL: O/U 2.5 Apr 16 $46 −$45 -98%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $2,154 −$2,122 -98%
Caracas FC vs. Club Independiente Petrolero: O/U 2.5 Apr 15 $1,039 −$1,022 -98%
SC Braga vs. FC Arouca: Both Teams to Score Apr 13 $317 +$273 +86%
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5 Apr 11 $1,367 −$1,346 -98%
Will Austin FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $1,065 −$1,065 -100%
Spread: Warriors (-10.5) Apr 11 $1,767 −$1,741 -98%
Pistons vs. Hornets: O/U 225.5 Apr 10 $1,405 −$1,383 -98%
CA Juventud vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 1.5 Apr 10 $151 +$60 +40%
SC Freiburg vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to Score Apr 10 $572 +$577 +101%
CA Juventud vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 2.5 Apr 09 $270 −$266 -98%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-09? Apr 09 $1,966 −$1,935 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $1,343 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $812 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $873 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Under 44¢ $189 23h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $3 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $790 2d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 44¢ $258 2d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 43¢ $416 2d
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-03-08? BUY Yes 46¢ $508 48d
Will Iwaki FC win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 49¢ $511 51d
Spread: FC Porto (-1.5) BUY FC Porto 48¢ $96 53d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY No 42¢ $548 55d
Celtics vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 110.5 BUY Under 48¢ $211 55d
Celtics vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 110.5 BUY Under 49¢ $144 55d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5 BUY Under 50¢ $501 56d
Toronto FC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $498 57d
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $2,496 61d
Spread: Suns (-3.5) BUY Warriors 52¢ $1,000 62d
CA Tigre vs. CSyD Macará: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 31¢ $173 63d
CA Tigre vs. CSyD Macará: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $929 63d
CA Tigre vs. CSyD Macará: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 31¢ $207 63d
CA Tigre vs. CSyD Macará: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1,115 63d
Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5) BUY Independiente Medellín 42¢ $95 63d
Seattle Sounders FC vs. Tigres de la UANL: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $46 64d
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-04-15? BUY No 51¢ $2,154 64d
Caracas FC vs. Club Independiente Petrolero: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $450 65d
Caracas FC vs. Club Independiente Petrolero: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $589 65d
SC Braga vs. FC Arouca: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $317 68d
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1,367 69d
Will Austin FC win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 45¢ $473 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,994.29 · official $2,994.29 (match) · 54 history records