trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 85¢ | 85¢ | $40 | $40 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 13 | $44 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $33 | +$4 | +12% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 10 | $33 | $0 | +1% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | Jun 10 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 13 | $1 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? | Jul 15 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in Epstein files? | Jun 25 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? | Jun 19 | $1 | +$1 | +46% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? | Jun 16 | $18 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Ben Shelton win Wimbledon 2025? | Jun 16 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Jun 16 | $18 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? | Jun 15 | $20 | $0 | -0% |
| Will FC Porto win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Jun 10 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship | Jun 10 | $20 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? | Jun 08 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election | Jun 07 | $19 | $0 | -0% |
| Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? | Jun 06 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and | Jun 05 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Jun 04 | $21 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Lewis Hamilton finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? | Jun 03 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? | Jun 03 | $22 | $0 | -0% |
| Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Jun 02 | $21 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May? | Jun 02 | $24 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? | Jun 01 | $3 | −$3 | -94% |
| Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | May 30 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair? | May 29 | $25 | $0 | -0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +3.0% | -6.8% | 50% | 25% | -7.0% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +3.0% | -6.8% | 50% | 25% | -7.0% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +3.0% | -6.8% | 50% | 25% | -7.0% |
| all | 26 | -1.5% | -10.9% | 23% | 8% | -9.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.9% | 8% | -9.2% |
| 10% | -19.4% | 4% | -17.9% |
| 15% | -27.2% | 4% | -25.8% |
| 20% | -34.3% | 0% | -33.1% |