Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:17:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
76 0x7682…312a other 7 markets active 3d ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$3
sports 22% −$3
crypto 15% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -13.9% -22.1% 50% 50% -6.6%
≤30d 6 -13.9% -22.1% 50% 50% -6.6%
≤90d 6 -13.9% -22.1% 50% 50% -6.6%
all 6 -13.9% -22.1% 50% 50% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 50% -6.6%
10% -29.5% 50% -15.5%
15% -36.3% 50% -23.7%
20% -42.6% 33% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$4 +109%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14 BUY 7¢ $2 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records