Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:44:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
76 0x7678…b8c6 crypto 4 markets active 6d ago coverage 250d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-72%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 250d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$5
weather 12% $0
other 12% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-56.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -35.1% -41.3% 33% 0% -74.5%
≤30d 3 -35.1% -41.3% 33% 0% -74.5%
≤90d 3 -35.1% -41.3% 33% 0% -74.5%
all 4 -51.4% -56.0% 25% 0% -77.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.0% 0% -77.6%
10% -60.2% 0% -79.8%
15% -64.0% 0% -81.7%
20% -67.6% 0% -83.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -72% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -75% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage250d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? Oct 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? SELL Yes 57¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? SELL Down 68¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 69¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 6d
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 256d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 6 history records