Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:21:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

76
0x7678…446a
crypto · 184 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$4 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$12 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$141
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses170 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)177 / 184
History coverage8d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 7 History 177 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$26
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 93¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%? No 95¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 96¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%? No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? Down 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%? No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Up 98¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 11? Yes 99¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +9%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 89% −$7
politics 5% +$3
finance 4% −$7
other 2% +$1
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 99¢ $20 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 97¢ $15 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $15 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 25h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 37h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 151 -1.6% -10.9% 95% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 177 -0.7% -10.2% 96% 1% -10.0%
≤90d 177 -0.7% -10.2% 96% 1% -10.0%
all 177 -0.7% -10.2% 96% 1% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 1% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.85 · official $140.85 (match) · 358 history records