Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:43:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7674…db25 tech 121 markets active 2h ago coverage 338d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$11 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%111W / 4L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% +$4
tech 29% −$1
world 21% $0
crypto 11% +$1
finance 6% +$3
economics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
politics 0% $0
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 10 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 69 +0.7% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.3%
all 115 -2.9% -12.1% 97% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 0% -8.9%
10% -20.5% 0% -17.6%
15% -28.2% 0% -25.6%
20% -35.3% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.55 per $1 lost it wins $2.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

338d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses111 / 4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)115 / 121
History coverage338d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 28 $2 $0 +0%
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? Jun 27 $149 +$1 +0%
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 01 $6 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $80 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $16 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 31 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca May 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? May 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 29 $80 +$3 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 29 $3 $0 +1%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 26 $36 $0 +1%
Nexus FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 21 $34 +$2 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $111 +$2 +2%
Will Ukraine advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $110 +$2 +1%
Will Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 12 $4 $0 +1%
Will Greece advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 12 $105 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $12 $0 +0%
Billions FDV above $700M one day after launch? May 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in April? May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $220 end of April? May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the April 2026 meeting? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the April meeting? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $230 end of April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 05 $3 $0 +1%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 05 $3 $0 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +1%
Will BNB dip to $200 in April? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will ByteDance have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? Apr 28 $2 $0 +0%
Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 15 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the Apr 09 $4 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $200 in March? Apr 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink dip to $2 in March? Apr 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March? Apr 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in March? Apr 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $30 in March? Apr 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Chainlink reach $20 in March? Apr 01 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $51 1h
Will Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June? BUY No 99¢ $16 5h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $29 6h
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $32 23h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $24 27h
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 100¢ $2 2d
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $2 3d
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 3d
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $125 3d
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $80 30d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 30d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 98¢ $37 31d
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $36 34d
Nexus FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 93¢ $34 39d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? BUY No 96¢ $80 42d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY No 98¢ $111 45d
Will Ukraine advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 99¢ $110 45d
Will Greece advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 99¢ $105 47d
Will Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 99¢ $4 47d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 49d
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $2 49d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 49d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 49d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $5 50d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $3 50d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 50d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $6 51d
Will Solana reach $150 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 52d
Billions FDV above $700M one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $41 55d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? BUY No 99¢ $2 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.59 · official $150.59 (match) · 240 history records