Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:51:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
76 0x7673…fa40 sports 114 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,649 (-7%) realized −$3,930 · open +$281
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%46W / 67L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$463per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$729est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$2,566now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$987
14 days−$666
30 days−$1,684
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$4,009
other 3% −$1,671
crypto 3% +$1,910
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +16.4% +5.3% 50% 50% +10.9%
≤30d 42 -20.3% -27.9% 38% 38% -16.5%
≤90d 113 -12.9% -21.2% 41% 41% -16.9%
all 113 -12.9% -21.2% 41% 41% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 41% -16.9%
10% -28.8% 41% -24.8%
15% -35.6% 41% -32.1%
20% -42.0% 36% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$675) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$475 vs −$387 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$2,566
Realized−$3,930
Unrealized+$281
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses46 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$729
Open positions1
Markets (closed)113 / 114
History coverage80d
Avg bet$463
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Under 69¢ 78¢ $2,285 $2,566 +$281 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $748 −$32 -4%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,568 +$973 +62%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $207 −$202 -98%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $409 +$178 +44%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $946 −$935 -99%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $510 +$1,005 +197%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1,317 −$1,296 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $260 +$590 +226%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $966 −$947 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Barça eSports (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 03 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $908 −$890 -98%
Valorant: QoR vs FlyQuest (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Sta Jun 03 $346 +$445 +129%
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs M80 (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage Jun 02 $367 −$360 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 01 $130 −$128 -99%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $198 −$193 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 31 $1,418 +$995 +70%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 31 $919 +$459 +50%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs DRX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Pacific Q May 30 $1,162 +$1,000 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 30 $217 +$302 +139%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Kiwoom Heroes May 30 $662 −$650 -98%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 May 29 $141 −$138 -98%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playo May 28 $1,501 −$1,481 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner May 28 $460 +$262 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 27 $77 −$75 -97%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs magic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 27 $1,173 −$1,155 -98%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Alliance - Map 1 Winner May 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Playoffs May 27 $171 +$323 +188%
Will LDU de Quito win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $257 −$252 -98%
Will CA Lanús win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $202 −$199 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea May 25 $308 −$301 -98%
Spread: AC Sparta Praha (-1.5) May 24 $122 +$51 +42%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Real Madrid May 24 $72 −$70 -98%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Hanwha Eagles May 23 $56 −$55 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships G May 23 $1,312 +$599 +46%
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Vitality.Bee (BO3) - LFL Playoffs May 21 $42 −$41 -98%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $262 −$259 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Esprit Shōnen - Game 1 Winner May 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Valorant: FunPlus Phoenix vs Wolves Esports (BO3) - China Evolution Se May 21 $585 −$575 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 20 $837 +$1,532 +183%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $248 +$189 +76%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 19 $463 −$456 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 19 $435 +$247 +57%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 18 $899 −$890 -99%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5) May 17 $1,359 +$806 +59%
LoL: GIANTX vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoff May 14 $1,549 +$1,384 +89%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup May 13 $820 −$805 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 12 $1,055 −$1,040 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - May 12 $592 −$580 -98%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 May 11 $312 −$305 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 10 $1,346 −$1,330 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $35 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $2,271 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 56¢ $715 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 57¢ $18 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 57¢ $729 2d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 61¢ $30 3d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 61¢ $1,538 3d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 24¢ $207 4d
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 68¢ $5 5d
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 69¢ $404 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $15 6d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $931 6d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 46¢ $6 11d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 46¢ $1,311 11d
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $510 11d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner BUY HANJIN BRION 32¢ $2 12d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner BUY HANJIN BRION 32¢ $15 12d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner BUY HANJIN BRION 32¢ $949 12d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Toronto Blue Jays 30¢ $5 13d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Toronto Blue Jays 30¢ $255 13d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Barça eSports (BO5) - LES Playoffs BUY Barça eSports 15¢ $4 14d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? BUY No 31¢ $908 14d
Valorant: QoR vs FlyQuest (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Sta BUY QoR 43¢ $346 15d
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs M80 (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 31¢ $367 15d
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 55¢ $2 16d
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 55¢ $128 16d
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 17d
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 23¢ $194 17d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 58¢ $1,418 18d
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Secret Whales 66¢ $10 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,566.04 · official $2,566.04 (match) · 197 history records