Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:05:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7672…c0be crypto 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 542d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate89%106W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$7
other 18% −$4
tech 12% +$5
politics 2% −$2
economics 2% +$3
sports 0% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 4 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
all 119 -4.4% -13.5% 89% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 5% -9.9%
10% -21.8% 2% -18.5%
15% -29.3% 1% -26.4%
20% -36.2% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

542d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses106 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)119 / 120
History coverage542d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $125 $125 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on June 3? Jun 18 $125 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 01 $125 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 07 $123 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 8? Apr 16 $123 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Feb 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026? Feb 08 $73 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in January 2026? Jan 19 $32 $0 +0%
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 05 $40 +$1 +2%
Pepe ETF in 2025? Jan 04 $2 $0 +12%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Jan 04 $22 −$4 -20%
Solana all time high before 2026? Jan 04 $18 $0 +2%
Will xAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? Jan 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 22-28? Jan 04 $36 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 28 $58 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 12 $47 +$11 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025? Dec 11 $23 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $22 +$1 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Dec 03 $11 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025? Dec 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in November? Dec 03 $14 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Dec 03 $15 $0 +1%
Will Tesla reach $615 in November? Dec 03 $16 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Dec 03 $16 $0 +1%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Nov 15 $17 −$1 -5%
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Novembe Nov 15 $12 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $15 +$1 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the second most valuable company on October 31? Oct 20 $23 +$2 +9%
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 September 29-October 5? Oct 14 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Google have the top AI model on October 31? Oct 04 $24 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? Oct 03 $15 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.60 September 22-28? Oct 03 $17 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Oct 03 $19 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, Oct 03 $20 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 24 $13 +$2 +12%
Will Ethereum reach $4900 September 8–14? Sep 24 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Solana reach $280 September 8–14? Sep 24 $23 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $205 in September? Sep 12 $11 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in September? Sep 12 $32 +$3 +10%
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31? Sep 01 $11 +$2 +20%
Will the price of Solana be between $200 and $210 on August 4? Sep 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? Sep 01 $18 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3900 on August 4? Sep 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Fuck" this week? Aug 03 $7 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 03 $11 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? Aug 03 $12 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.06 in July? Aug 03 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $125 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $125 16d
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $125 42d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? BUY No 98¢ $123 61d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 8? BUY No 100¢ $123 130d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $73 150d
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? SELL Yes 49¢ $41 164d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $25 165d
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY No 100¢ $25 165d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 165d
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? BUY Yes 48¢ $40 165d
Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 22-28? BUY No 100¢ $36 171d
Will xAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? BUY No 100¢ $22 171d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 BUY No 100¢ $58 188d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL Yes 70¢ $57 188d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes 57¢ $36 188d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 188d
Solana all time high before 2026? BUY No 98¢ $18 197d
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $18 197d
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $25 197d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $23 197d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $11 215d
Will Tesla reach $615 in November? BUY No 99¢ $16 215d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY No 99¢ $16 215d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? SELL Yes 91¢ $16 215d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 BUY No 100¢ $15 226d
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Novembe BUY No 99¢ $12 226d
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $11 226d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $15 226d
Will Solana reach $300 in November? BUY No 99¢ $14 226d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.94 · official $124.94 (match) · 249 history records