Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:19:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
76 0x7671…9798 other 129 markets active 1d ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$16 (+5%) realized +$21 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate45%49W / 59L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$9
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 24% −$8
world 15% −$3
politics 14% +$15
tech 14% −$2
sports 11% +$12
crypto 10% −$4
weather 8% +$10
economics 3% −$7
finance 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -32.0% -38.5% 33% 6% -32.5%
≤30d 72 +6.2% -3.9% 40% 29% -8.7%
≤90d 108 +12.3% +1.6% 45% 28% -3.4%
all 108 +12.3% +1.6% 45% 28% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.6% 28% -3.4%
10% -8.1% 25% -12.7%
15% -17.0% 21% -21.1%
20% -25.1% 20% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses49 / 59
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions21
Markets (closed)108 / 129
History coverage55d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 80¢ 96¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+19%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 61¢ 68¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 47¢ 54¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+14%)
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 47¢ 51¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 42¢ 46¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 44¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+35%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? Yes 18¢ 32¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+81%)
Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat? No 27¢ 30¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 28¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-32 House seat? Yes 22¢ 27¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 26¢ 25¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No 24¢ 21¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026? Yes 23¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? No 22¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision? No 40¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-65%)
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? No 21¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 37¢ $4 $0 −$3 (-87%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 22¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-61%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 26¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-69%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by more than 10%? Yes 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? Jun 15 $4 $0 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -43%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -28%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $4 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +50%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 -13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 11 $7 $0 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -58%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $4 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 +$4 +400%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 06 $4 $0 +3%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $1 $0 -9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 05 $3 $0 +12%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 5? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 +$4 +267%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 05 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 4? Jun 05 $3 +$2 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 4? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 C Jun 04 $1 +$4 +235%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $1 +$4 +247%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 2? Jun 02 $4 +$1 +16%
Will Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 400.0k by May 31? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 -8%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the first round of the 2026 Colombia May 31 $1 +$4 +405%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MV May 31 $1 +$4 +291%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference? May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 27 $3 −$1 -33%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 27 $2 −$1 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 27? May 26 $1 $0 +9%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 26 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Cruz Azul win Liga MX? May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 24 $1 +$4 +525%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 22 $2 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $2 27h
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? SELL No 44¢ $2 27h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 30h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 30h
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 22¢ $1 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 16¢ $1 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes $0 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO BUY No 28¢ $1 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 4d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL No 35¢ $2 4d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 34¢ $2 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 4d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 33¢ $2 4d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 44¢ $2 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 28¢ $1 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 31¢ $2 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 33¢ $2 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 5d
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 5d
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 5d
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 5d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes $0 5d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.40 · official $62.40 (match) · 293 history records