Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:39:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7670…43b9 crypto 1625 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (303 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$4,092 (+14%) realized +$4,101 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%1040W / 503L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day302.7pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$10,046
other 2% +$228
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (303 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1355 +6.1% -4.0% 65% 65% -15.0%
≤30d 1543 +12.1% +1.4% 67% 67% -9.9%
≤90d 1543 +12.1% +1.4% 67% 67% -9.9%
all 1543 +12.1% +1.4% 67% 67% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover302.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.4% 67% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -8.3% 67% -18.5%
15% -17.2% 63% -26.4%
20% -25.3% 52% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$26 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$4,101
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses1040 / 503
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1543 / 1625
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day302.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1543 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Down 87¢ 48¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $96 −$96 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $98 −$98 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $98 −$98 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$200 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $7 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $20 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 31m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $8 32m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $19 32m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $19 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 53m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $20 53m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $18 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $15 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $16 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $0 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $18 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $6 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $8 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.14 · official $10.68 (match) · 3500 history records