Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:09:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x766e…b5f1 world 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 537d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate28%20W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$1
other 21% $0
sports 19% −$1
politics 12% +$1
economics 6% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% −$2
culture 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 24 -1.1% -10.5% 38% 4% -9.4%
≤90d 62 -0.6% -10.1% 27% 2% -9.5%
all 71 -1.0% -10.4% 28% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 4% -9.8%
10% -19.0% 4% -18.5%
15% -26.8% 4% -26.3%
20% -34.0% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

537d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses20 / 51
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage537d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 54¢ 50¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $31 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $35 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $38 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $12 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $131 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $31 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $35 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $32 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $31 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $71 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $17 −$1 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $1 +$1 +71%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $35 −$3 -7%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 24 $41 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $33 +$3 +9%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $37 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $5 $0 -8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $3 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $43 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $45 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $92 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $30 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $63 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $67 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $83 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $65 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $22 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $9 $0 -2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $99 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 12 $60 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $31 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $31 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $34 17h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $34 17h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $32 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $32 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 72¢ $32 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $31 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $35 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $32 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $30 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $12 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $2 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $8 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $2 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $2 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $31 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $31 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $30 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $1 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $26 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $22 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.27 · official $0.00 (match) · 288 history records