Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:59:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
76 0x766d…836a crypto 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+3%) realized −$46 · open +$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 96d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$58
crypto 19% −$4
sports 5% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-36.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -56.1% -60.3% 25% 25% -10.9%
≤30d 7 -30.2% -36.9% 43% 29% -9.4%
≤90d 7 -30.2% -36.9% 43% 29% -9.4%
all 7 -30.2% -36.9% 43% 29% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.9% 29% -9.4%
10% -42.9% 29% -18.1%
15% -48.4% 29% -26.0%
20% -53.5% 29% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$49
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage96d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 100¢ $45 $94 +$49 (+108%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-1.5) Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $48 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $11 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 11d
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 31d
Spread: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-1.5) BUY Chengdu Rongcheng FC 57¢ $5 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.70 · official $93.28 (match) · 16 history records