Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:13:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
76 0x766a…ae64 sports 234 markets active 0h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$605 (+3%) realized +$599 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate90%208W / 22L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$313est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$344now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days+$91
14 days+$170
30 days+$291
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$651
other 8% −$73
culture 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +2.3% -7.4% 96% 8% -5.3%
≤30d 91 +9.3% -1.1% 90% 12% -6.6%
≤90d 230 +4.9% -5.1% 90% 10% -7.4%
all 230 +4.9% -5.1% 90% 10% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 10% -7.4%
10% -14.1% 6% -16.3%
15% -22.4% 4% -24.4%
20% -30.0% 4% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$27 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$344
Realized+$599
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses208 / 22
Est. fees paid−$313
Open positions4
Markets (closed)230 / 234
History coverage87d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 230 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Marcinko (+1.5) Marcinko 49¢ 50¢ $163 $164 +$2 (+1%)
Bad Homburg Open (Doubles): Sutjiadi/Zvonareva vs Hsieh/Wang Sutjiadi/Zvonareva 48¢ 50¢ $91 $95 +$3 (+4%)
Petra Marcinko vs. Madison Keys: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 49¢ 50¢ $58 $58 +$1 (+1%)
Marcinko vs. Keys: Match O/U 21.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Ostapenko (-1.5) vs Maria (+1.5) Jun 26 $608 +$11 +2%
Tatjana Maria vs. Jelena Ostapenko: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $75 +$2 +2%
Set Handicap: Maria (-1.5) vs Ostapenko (+1.5) Jun 26 $1 $0 +2%
Giannicola Misasi vs. George Lazarov: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $8 $0 +2%
Set Handicap: Bianchi/Perez (-1.5) vs Jecan/Pavel (+1.5) Jun 25 $48 −$48 -100%
Makke vs. Robert: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 25 $10 $0 +2%
Tiphanie Lemaitre vs. Kristina Mladenovic: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 $0 +2%
Lemaitre vs. Mladenovic: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 25 $10 $0 +2%
Makke vs. Robert: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 25 $10 $0 +2%
Louay Makke vs. Nicolas Robert: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 $0 +2%
Lemaitre vs. Mladenovic: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 25 $10 $0 +2%
Makke vs. Robert: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 25 $10 $0 +2%
Lemaitre vs. Mladenovic: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 25 $10 $0 +2%
Set Handicap: Perez/Schuurs (-1.5) vs Tang/Zhang (+1.5) Jun 24 $96 +$98 +102%
Mallorca Championships (Doubles): Melo/Molteni vs Buse/Darderi Jun 24 $6 $0 +2%
Set Handicap: Vaissaud (-1.5) vs Havermans (+1.5) Jun 24 $10 $0 +2%
Daniel Michalski vs. Jelle Sels: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $38 +$1 +2%
Set Handicap: Ram/Salisbury (-1.5) vs Nys/Roger-Vasselin (+1.5) Jun 24 $24 $0 +2%
Britt Du Pree vs. Julie Pastikova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $77 +$2 +2%
Cherubino vs. Winter: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 24 $196 +$4 +2%
Noah Lopez Cherubino vs. Edward Winter: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $395 +$5 +1%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $99 +$1 +1%
Set Handicap: Galloway/Peers (-1.5) vs Arribage/Olivetti (+1.5) Jun 20 $37 +$1 +2%
Halle Open (Doubles): Galloway/Peers vs Arribage/Olivetti Jun 20 $89 +$11 +12%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Hermine Esports Club (BO3) - ESEA European F Jun 20 $91 +$2 +3%
Will Paraguay win the World Cup? Jun 19 $3 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $111 +$3 +2%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 19 $196 +$4 +2%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $198 +$5 +2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $50 +$1 +2%
World Cup: Winless Team? Jun 18 $339 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $397 +$8 +2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $24 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Gonzalez/McDonald vs. Faria/Rocha: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $173 −$29 -16%
Mushika vs. Lin: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $19 −$7 -39%
Mao Mushika vs. Yu-Chen Lin: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $443 −$123 -28%
Mushika vs. Lin: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $309 −$55 -18%
Will Ghana be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Jun 16 $3 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $4 $0 -8%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $33 +$92 +275%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) Jun 15 $109 +$16 +15%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $31 +$94 +306%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $49 +$76 +155%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $100 +$25 +24%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Jun 13 $29 +$1 +4%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) Jun 12 $122 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $122 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Marcinko vs. Keys: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 49¢ $26 12m
Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Marcinko (+1.5) BUY Marcinko 49¢ $152 13m
Petra Marcinko vs. Madison Keys: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 49¢ $48 16m
Petra Marcinko vs. Madison Keys: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 49¢ $10 16m
Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Marcinko (+1.5) BUY Marcinko 49¢ $11 17m
Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Marcinko (+1.5) SELL Marcinko 50¢ $16 18m
Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Marcinko (+1.5) BUY Marcinko 49¢ $16 18m
Bad Homburg Open (Doubles): Sutjiadi/Zvonareva vs Hsieh/Wang BUY Sutjiadi/Zvonareva 49¢ $45 21m
Bad Homburg Open (Doubles): Sutjiadi/Zvonareva vs Hsieh/Wang BUY Sutjiadi/Zvonareva 49¢ $3 21m
Bad Homburg Open (Doubles): Sutjiadi/Zvonareva vs Hsieh/Wang BUY Sutjiadi/Zvonareva 49¢ $1 21m
Bad Homburg Open (Doubles): Sutjiadi/Zvonareva vs Hsieh/Wang BUY Sutjiadi/Zvonareva 49¢ $10 21m
Bad Homburg Open (Doubles): Sutjiadi/Zvonareva vs Hsieh/Wang BUY Sutjiadi/Zvonareva 49¢ $1 21m
Bad Homburg Open (Doubles): Sutjiadi/Zvonareva vs Hsieh/Wang BUY Sutjiadi/Zvonareva 49¢ $1 21m
Bad Homburg Open (Doubles): Sutjiadi/Zvonareva vs Hsieh/Wang BUY Sutjiadi/Zvonareva 49¢ $7 21m
Bad Homburg Open (Doubles): Sutjiadi/Zvonareva vs Hsieh/Wang BUY Sutjiadi/Zvonareva 44¢ $24 21m
Set Handicap: Ostapenko (-1.5) vs Maria (+1.5) SELL Ostapenko 50¢ $366 29m
Set Handicap: Ostapenko (-1.5) vs Maria (+1.5) SELL Ostapenko 50¢ $138 29m
Set Handicap: Ostapenko (-1.5) vs Maria (+1.5) SELL Ostapenko 50¢ $24 37m
Set Handicap: Ostapenko (-1.5) vs Maria (+1.5) SELL Ostapenko 50¢ $81 54m
Set Handicap: Ostapenko (-1.5) vs Maria (+1.5) SELL Ostapenko 50¢ $10 56m
Tatjana Maria vs. Jelena Ostapenko: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2.5 50¢ $15 1h
Tatjana Maria vs. Jelena Ostapenko: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2.5 50¢ $1 1h
Set Handicap: Maria (-1.5) vs Ostapenko (+1.5) BUY Ostapenko 49¢ $1 1h
Set Handicap: Ostapenko (-1.5) vs Maria (+1.5) BUY Ostapenko 49¢ $19 1h
Set Handicap: Ostapenko (-1.5) vs Maria (+1.5) BUY Ostapenko 49¢ $196 1h
Set Handicap: Ostapenko (-1.5) vs Maria (+1.5) BUY Ostapenko 49¢ $143 1h
Set Handicap: Ostapenko (-1.5) vs Maria (+1.5) BUY Ostapenko 49¢ $1 1h
Tatjana Maria vs. Jelena Ostapenko: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 49¢ $1 1h
Tatjana Maria vs. Jelena Ostapenko: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 49¢ $24 1h
Tatjana Maria vs. Jelena Ostapenko: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 49¢ $19 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $344.41 · official $344.41 (match) · 898 history records