Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:50:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7665…250e crypto 116 markets active 1d ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$17 (-7%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate32%37W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day34.5pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$22
other 3% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 -10.9% -19.4% 32% 31% -21.7%
≤30d 116 -10.9% -19.4% 32% 31% -21.7%
≤90d 116 -10.9% -19.4% 32% 31% -21.7%
all 116 -10.9% -19.4% 32% 31% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.4% 31% -21.7%
10% ← realistic here -27.1% 29% -29.2%
15% -34.2% 25% -36.1%
20% -40.6% 19% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses37 / 79
Open positions0
Markets (closed)116 / 116
History coverage5d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day34.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 116 Trades
no open positions (62 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +44%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -63%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +151%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +102%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 28h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 29h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $0 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 195 history records