Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:17:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7662…2143 crypto 209 markets active 0h ago coverage 146d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL −$527 (-3%) realized −$527 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate64%133W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$439
7 days+$300
14 days+$300
30 days+$300
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$400
politics 0% −$1
other 0% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +116.2% +95.6% 72% 56% -8.3%
≤30d 50 +116.2% +95.6% 72% 56% -8.3%
≤90d 50 +116.2% +95.6% 72% 56% -8.3%
all 208 +27.1% +15.0% 64% 51% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.0% 51% -13.4%
10% +4.0% 32% -21.7%
15% -6.0% 19% -29.2%
20% -15.3% 12% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$32 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$527
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses133 / 75
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)208 / 209
History coverage146d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 208 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 18 $207 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $275 −$144 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $310 +$51 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $124 −$95 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $304 +$79 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $414 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $331 +$72 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $42 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $415 +$11 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $104 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $310 +$55 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $310 +$18 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $342 +$109 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $415 +$95 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $349 +$101 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $216 +$131 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $466 −$326 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$8 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $500 +$51 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $429 +$72 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $412 +$37 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $310 +$50 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $259 +$60 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $81 −$80 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $62 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $73 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $57 −$50 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $207 +$26 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$19 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $227 +$15 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $204 +$49 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $21 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $112 −$112 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $206 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $207 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $131 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $23 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $23 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $14 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $20 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $50 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $20 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 7m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.16 · official $0.00 (match) · 1487 history records