Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:58:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7660…7a01 sports 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 626d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$184 (-5%) realized −$183 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate30%10W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,038now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$23
politics 28% −$4
sports 11% −$159
crypto 3% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-32.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 33 -25.5% -32.6% 30% 6% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.6% 6% -15.8%
10% -39.0% 6% -23.9%
15% -44.9% 6% -31.2%
20% -50.3% 6% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$13 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

626d coverage
Net worth$1,038
Realized−$183
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses10 / 23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage626d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $577 $577 −$0 (-0%)
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $462 $462 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,026 −$2 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $1,043 −$1 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Oct 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: BAL (-4.5) Oct 06 $8 +$8 +100%
Braves vs. Nationals Sep 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Texans Sep 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%? Jul 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jul 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Nicolae Ciucă win the Romanian presidential election? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 08 $5 $0 -0%
Everton wins the Premier League? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? May 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? May 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? May 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 25 $4 $0 -1%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $3 $0 -3%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 03 $2 $0 -4%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 02 $2 $0 -14%
Panthers vs. Avalanche Jan 08 $118 +$97 +82%
Canadiens vs. Blackhawks Jan 04 $121 −$121 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Panthers Jan 03 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Liverpool lead the EPL in points at midway point? Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Tether Insolvent in 2024? Jan 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will USDC flip USDT in market cap in 2024? Jan 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Jan 02 $24 $0 +0%
Ethena crash in 2024? Jan 02 $25 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Jan 02 $25 $0 +0%
Who will speak more at VP Debate? Oct 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $462 1h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $577 1h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,025 1h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,026 12h
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,042 12h
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,043 19h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 50¢ $14 254d
Spread: BAL (-4.5) BUY DET 50¢ $8 268d
Braves vs. Nationals BUY Nationals 39¢ $7 274d
Buccaneers vs. Texans BUY Texans 57¢ $6 276d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $6 359d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? SELL No 99¢ $6 401d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? BUY No 99¢ $6 402d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? SELL No 98¢ $5 405d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 406d
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%? BUY Yes $1 406d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? SELL No 100¢ $5 407d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 407d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 95¢ $3 408d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 98¢ $5 408d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 98¢ $5 408d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 94¢ $2 413d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 94¢ $5 413d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL Yes 77¢ $4 418d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 420d
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? SELL No 84¢ $4 426d
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? BUY No 84¢ $4 427d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 91¢ $5 427d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 92¢ $5 427d
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $5 434d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,038.48 · official $1,038.48 (match) · 68 history records