Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:54:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x765d…f428 world 101 markets active 2h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate32%32W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$2
other 21% $0
politics 17% −$20
sports 14% +$11
tech 3% +$2
economics 2% $0
weather 1% $0
finance 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.3% -9.2% 40% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 28 +1.0% -8.6% 39% 4% -9.2%
≤90d 66 -1.5% -10.9% 30% 2% -9.5%
all 101 -2.2% -11.5% 32% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 3% -9.7%
10% -19.9% 2% -18.3%
15% -27.7% 2% -26.2%
20% -34.8% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses32 / 69
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)101 / 101
History coverage486d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 101 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 19 $108 +$2 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $71 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $34 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $25 −$1 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $57 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $6 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $71 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $34 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $33 −$2 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $62 +$1 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $55 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $33 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $33 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $37 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $9 $0 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $2 +$1 +39%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $10 −$1 -7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $142 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 20 $21 −$1 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 20 $33 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $31 −$1 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $5 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $2 $0 -7%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $33 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $36 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 29 $48 $0 -1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 27 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $35 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $53 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $157 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $33 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $5 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 13 $41 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $34 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 11 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $38 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $38 3h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $21 9h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $13 9h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $34 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $25 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $9 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $34 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $37 36h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $37 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $34 44h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $34 46h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $25 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $25 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $11 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $24 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $34 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 88¢ $25 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 88¢ $9 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $33 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $0 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $12 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 402 history records