Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:38:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x765a…d1e2 other 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 461d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate44%41W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% +$5
other 14% $0
politics 2% −$1
finance 1% −$15
economics 1% +$1
sports 1% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.3% -9.2% 29% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 22 -1.0% -10.4% 41% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 25 -0.8% -10.3% 40% 0% -9.7%
all 94 -0.9% -10.3% 44% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 4% -9.7%
10% -18.9% 1% -18.3%
15% -26.7% 1% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

461d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses41 / 53
Open positions1
Markets (closed)94 / 95
History coverage461d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $142 +$7 +5%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $191 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $151 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $143 −$2 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $144 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $143 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $128 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $5 $0 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $51 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $362 +$1 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $1,015 −$1 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $160 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $154 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $8 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $143 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $97 −$15 -16%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $72 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $156 +$1 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $516 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $264 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $160 −$4 -3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $808 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 13 $49 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $934 +$3 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Dec 20 $14 $0 +1%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 16 $27 $0 -0%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 16 $18 $0 +0%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 15 $18 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Dec 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Dec 14 $5 $0 +7%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 02 $5 −$1 -27%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Oct 24 $1 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 23 $6 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 01 $4 $0 -7%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 24 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Sep 16 $3 $0 -4%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 14 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $71 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $78 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 61¢ $142 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $24 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 32h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $35 34h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $96 38h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $46 38h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $142 42h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $156 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $156 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $142 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $118 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $26 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $5 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $4 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $144 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $144 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $77 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $66 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $143 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 55¢ $128 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 55¢ $128 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.19 · official $0.00 (match) · 372 history records