Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:13:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7658…e142 crypto 156 markets active 2h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$5 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%91W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$11
other 2% −$2
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -21.4% -28.9% 50% 50% -30.0%
≤30d 36 -19.2% -26.9% 50% 50% -26.3%
≤90d 154 -3.8% -12.9% 59% 59% -11.9%
all 154 -3.8% -12.9% 59% 59% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 59% -11.9%
10% -21.3% 59% -20.3%
15% -28.9% 59% -28.0%
20% -35.8% 37% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses91 / 63
Open positions2
Markets (closed)154 / 156
History coverage49d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 23¢ 18¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 03 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 30 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 28 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 27 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 24 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 24 $3 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 24 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 24 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 23 $2 +$2 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 23 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 23 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 22 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 22 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 21 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 19 $3 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 18 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 17 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 17 $3 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 16 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 16 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 16 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 16 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 16 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 16 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 15 $2 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 15 $2 +$3 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 14 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $4 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $4 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $4 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $4 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $4 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $4 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.53 · official $10.53 (match) · 322 history records