Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:17:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7656…fd8f sports 142 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$866 (-15%) realized −$880 · open +$14
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate55%77W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$251now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$100
7 days−$36
14 days−$83
30 days−$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$801
other 1% −$62
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +4.8% -5.2% 50% 50% -14.5%
≤30d 12 -20.0% -27.6% 42% 42% -20.7%
≤90d 24 -7.3% -16.1% 54% 42% -15.2%
all 140 -19.5% -27.1% 55% 22% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 22% -24.2%
10% -34.1% 19% -31.5%
15% -40.5% 16% -38.1%
20% -46.3% 12% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$38 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$251
Realized−$880
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses77 / 63
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)140 / 142
History coverage135d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 4.5 Corners Over 64¢ 70¢ $135 $148 +$13 (+10%)
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 1.5 Corners Over 72¢ 72¢ $102 $102 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $52 +$103 +197%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $120 −$118 -99%
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl Jun 26 $11 −$11 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 26 $111 +$126 +114%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $117 −$115 -99%
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $41 +$35 +86%
France vs. Iraq: France 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $100 −$98 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $102 +$43 +42%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $8 −$7 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +21%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Club Alianza Atlético (-2.5) Apr 27 $14 $0 +3%
Spread: FK Obolon Kyiv (-1.5) Apr 26 $10 +$1 +6%
Thunder vs. Nuggets Apr 11 $100 +$54 +54%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Apr 09 $206 −$204 -99%
Bucks vs. Nets Apr 08 $48 +$70 +146%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Sara Bejlek vs Panna Udvardy Apr 07 $10 −$3 -33%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 06 $94 −$92 -98%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Apr 05 $93 +$120 +129%
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers Apr 03 $135 +$51 +38%
Spread: Guinea-Bissau (-2.5) Mar 31 $65 +$5 +7%
Pistons vs. Thunder Mar 31 $136 +$22 +16%
Mavericks vs. Bucks Mar 30 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Montedio Yamagata win on 2026-03-29? Mar 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Tochigi SC win on 2026-03-29? Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Warriors vs. Nuggets Mar 28 $44 −$44 -100%
Spread: Gainare Tottori (-2.5) Mar 28 $1 $0 -28%
Spread: Guatemala (-2.5) Mar 28 $22 $0 +2%
Clippers vs. Pacers Mar 26 $39 −$39 -100%
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers Mar 26 $193 −$193 -100%
Spread: Real Madrid CF Femenino (-2.5) Mar 26 $10 $0 +4%
Bulls vs. 76ers Mar 26 $203 +$114 +56%
Nets vs. Warriors Mar 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Bucks vs. Trail Blazers Mar 24 $28 −$28 -100%
Pacers vs. Magic: O/U 233.5 Mar 24 $25 +$27 +108%
Bucks vs. Clippers: O/U 224.5 Mar 24 $38 +$43 +113%
Bucks vs. Clippers Mar 24 $94 +$21 +23%
Warriors vs. Mavericks Mar 24 $97 +$90 +92%
Will Arsenal WFC win on 2026-03-24? Mar 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Thunder vs. 76ers: O/U 223.5 Mar 23 $98 −$98 -100%
Gainare Tottori vs. Fukushima United FC: O/U 4.5 Mar 23 $59 −$48 -82%
Spread: Alianza FC (-2.5) Mar 23 $14 +$1 +9%
Spread: AA Ponte Preta (-2.5) Mar 22 $10 $0 +5%
Spurs vs. Heat Mar 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: ADC Juan Pablo II College (-1.5) Mar 22 $10 +$1 +6%
Spread: CD Moquegua (-2.5) Mar 21 $5 $0 +6%
Spread: Iwaki FC (-2.5) Mar 21 $51 +$2 +5%
Basquet Club Andorra vs. Bilbao Basket Mar 20 $47 −$47 -100%
Pacers vs. Spurs Mar 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Over 72¢ $103 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 64¢ $136 1h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 54¢ $120 19h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 33¢ $52 24h
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl BUY shimmer 34¢ $11 25h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 46¢ $111 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $117 2d
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 53¢ $41 5d
France vs. Iraq: France 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $100 5d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 18¢ $8 7d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 70¢ $51 8d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 70¢ $51 8d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 27¢ $31 8d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 26¢ $10 8d
United States vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 82¢ $1 15d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 0.5 BUY Under 15¢ $3 15d
Spread: Club Alianza Atlético (-2.5) BUY Club Universitario de Deportes 97¢ $14 63d
Spread: FK Obolon Kyiv (-1.5) BUY FK Polissia 94¢ $10 63d
Thunder vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 64¢ $100 78d
Timberwolves vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 71¢ $100 79d
Timberwolves vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 71¢ $21 79d
Timberwolves vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 71¢ $71 79d
Timberwolves vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 68¢ $14 79d
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Sara Bejlek vs Panna Udvardy SELL Sara Bejlek 50¢ $7 81d
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Sara Bejlek vs Panna Udvardy BUY Sara Bejlek 74¢ $10 82d
Bucks vs. Nets BUY Nets 40¢ $48 82d
Bulls vs. Wizards BUY Wizards 30¢ $5 82d
Bulls vs. Wizards BUY Wizards 30¢ $89 82d
Spurs vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 43¢ $93 84d
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers BUY Trail Blazers 72¢ $135 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $250.70 · official $250.70 (match) · 271 history records