Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:53:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
76 0x7652…1c74 other 114 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+0%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$11
politics 32% −$10
sports 8% +$41
crypto 5% −$1
economics 4% −$1
world 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 97 +10.0% -0.5% 8% 5% -9.4%
all 113 +7.2% -3.0% 11% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 6% -9.5%
10% -12.3% 5% -18.1%
15% -20.8% 5% -26.0%
20% -28.5% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +15% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$1 · ×9.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)113 / 114
History coverage115d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $28 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $456 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $193 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $456 −$1 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $274 +$1 +0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $208 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $381 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $258 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $14 $0 +1%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $516 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $228 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $216 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $232 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $255 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $209 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $226 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 02 $183 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $256 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $242 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $181 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $393 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $244 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $448 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $233 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $184 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $202 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $268 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $264 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $193 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $216 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $196 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $208 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 21 $268 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $495 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $476 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 20 $239 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $237 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $241 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 18 $245 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $241 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $260 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $220 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $203 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $193 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $272 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $254 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $254 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 11d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 21d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $187 21d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $187 24d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $193 30d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $193 34d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $236 37d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $236 38d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $275 38d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $274 44d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $208 45d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $208 45d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $190 45d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $190 45d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $258 46d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $258 46d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $246 46d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $246 47d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $254 47d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $254 47d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $228 47d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $228 48d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $216 48d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $185 48d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $232 48d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $232 48d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 48d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $255 48d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $255 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.99 · official $28.99 (match) · 307 history records