Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:48:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
76 0x7652…cb0b other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 632d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$54 (+2%) realized +$54 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate28%7W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$996now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% −$5
other 30% −$14
sports 11% +$70
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-32.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 25 -25.0% -32.1% 28% 12% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.1% 12% -7.6%
10% -38.6% 12% -16.4%
15% -44.6% 12% -24.5%
20% -50.0% 12% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 96% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$8 · ×3.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

632d coverage
Net worth$996
Realized+$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses7 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage632d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $996 $996 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $1,446 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $537 −$1 -0%
Commanders vs. Dolphins Nov 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers Nov 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Blue Jays vs. Rays Sep 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Texans Sep 16 $6 +$8 +127%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Adrienne Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Romuald Starosielec be the next President of Poland? Jul 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? Jul 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend May 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? May 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 05 $6 $0 -1%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 30 $5 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 25 $4 $0 -2%
Thunder vs. Cavaliers Jan 09 $133 +$96 +72%
Panthers vs. Avalanche Jan 08 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the Giants get the second pick? Jan 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Predators vs. Canucks Jan 05 $122 +$99 +81%
Who will speak more at VP Debate? Oct 02 $11 −$11 -100%
草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)? Oct 01 $11 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $996 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $453 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $536 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $454 10h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $537 10h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $991 10h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $992 36h
Commanders vs. Dolphins BUY Commanders 44¢ $10 221d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY Celtics 46¢ $10 224d
Blue Jays vs. Rays BUY Rays 51¢ $12 280d
Buccaneers vs. Texans BUY Buccaneers 44¢ $6 282d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes $1 333d
Will Adrienne Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes $1 341d
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? BUY No 100¢ $2 365d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? SELL No 76¢ $4 400d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? BUY No 76¢ $4 401d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? SELL No 99¢ $5 401d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 403d
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend SELL No 99¢ $6 403d
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend BUY No 100¢ $6 405d
Will Romuald Starosielec be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes $1 405d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $5 407d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $5 408d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $5 411d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $5 412d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $5 413d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $5 414d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 98¢ $6 414d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 98¢ $6 415d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 94¢ $5 419d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $995.50 · official $995.50 (match) · 50 history records