Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:37:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
76 0x7650…fac1 other 216 markets active 1h ago coverage 353d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,188 (+1%) realized +$4,279 · open +$909
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate63%128W / 75L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,120per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$203est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$17,954now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35,151
7 days+$49,742
14 days+$7,135
30 days+$865
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$18,605
world 4% +$5,976
sports 4% +$1,290
crypto 3% +$13,680
economics 3% +$846
tech 2% +$667
finance 2% +$869
politics 0% −$183
culture 0% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +32.6% +20.0% 74% 68% +7.5%
≤30d 55 +9.3% -1.1% 67% 60% -8.8%
≤90d 97 +5.8% -4.3% 66% 55% -8.6%
all 203 -0.1% -9.7% 63% 44% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 44% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 34% -17.1%
15% -26.2% 29% -25.1%
20% -33.4% 22% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$930) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$815 vs −$1,343 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

353d coverage
Net worth$17,954
Realized+$4,279
Unrealized+$909
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses128 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$203
Open positions13
Markets (closed)203 / 216
History coverage353d
Avg bet$2,120
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 203 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? No 51¢ 52¢ $5,100 $5,250 +$150 (+3%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? No 46¢ 46¢ $5,000 $4,946 −$54 (-1%)
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $70B by June 30? No 90¢ 99¢ $1,966 $2,165 +$199 (+10%)
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $125B by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $1,178 $1,263 +$85 (+7%)
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $110B by June 30? No 89¢ 99¢ $1,090 $1,222 +$132 (+12%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Yes 65¢ 80¢ $552 $676 +$123 (+22%)
Databricks IPO before 2027? No 83¢ 82¢ $498 $495 −$3 (-1%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? No 92¢ 100¢ $442 $478 +$36 (+8%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 46¢ 48¢ $460 $475 +$15 (+3%)
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by June 30? No 83¢ 99¢ $358 $425 +$67 (+19%)
Anduril IPO before 2027? No 60¢ 91¢ $191 $291 +$100 (+52%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes 41¢ 46¢ $165 $185 +$20 (+12%)
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $170B by December 31? Yes 39¢ 69¢ $47 $83 +$36 (+77%)
Databricks IPO before 2027? Yes 48¢ 18¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $1,087 +$1,013 +93%
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai Jun 27 $3,179 +$821 +26%
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main Jun 27 $1,518 −$1,518 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $205 −$151 -74%
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, Jun 27 $1,045 +$1,055 +101%
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy Jun 27 $4,516 +$834 +18%
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre Jun 27 $503 −$494 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $12,706 +$4,794 +38%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10,126 +$7,116 +70%
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $160B by December 31? Jun 26 $35 +$40 +113%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $1,024 −$1,000 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10,115 +$6,015 +60%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $62,475 +$16,625 +27%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15,191 −$15,002 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $64,822 +$11,978 +18%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,025 +$4,531 +442%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $54,291 +$5,209 +10%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10,120 +$3,047 +30%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10,099 +$4,827 +48%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10,126 +$7,116 +70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5,348 −$5,281 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,556 −$1,876 -73%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10,111 +$5,762 +57%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10,000 −$10,000 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10,108 −$10,000 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20,001 −$20,001 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $36 +$34 +97%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $79 +$21 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $56 +$44 +79%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10,186 −$7,270 -71%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15,000 +$13,846 +92%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15,191 −$15,002 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10,124 −$10,000 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,526 +$1,669 +109%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 ( Jun 12 $228 +$104 +46%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $312 +$57 +18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $210 +$290 +138%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $2,029 +$205 +10%
Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1,137 +$157 +14%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $13 +$7 +60%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $26 −$25 -94%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $11 +$9 +86%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $22 −$15 -68%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 06 $12 +$8 +62%
Will Innio's market cap be between $17B and $20B at market close on IP Jun 05 $1,494 +$504 +34%
Will Innio's market cap be less than $17B at market close on IPO day? Jun 04 $133 +$11 +8%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be at least $25B at market close on IPO d Jun 04 $180 −$176 -98%
Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day May 31 $75 −$74 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $31 +$8 +27%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $2,465 +$977 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 46¢ $5,081 1h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 51¢ $1,087 1h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Shara Magomedov 79¢ $188 2h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Shara Magomedov 79¢ $2,991 2h
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca SELL Charles Johnson 7¢ $42 3h
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca SELL Charles Johnson 7¢ $11 3h
UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Ca BUY Charles Johnson 26¢ $205 3h
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main BUY Nazim Sadykhov 62¢ $1,518 3h
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, BUY Abus Magomedov 49¢ $1,045 4h
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy BUY Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 84¢ $4,516 5h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Bekzat Almakhan 38¢ $503 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 51¢ $5,175 7h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 72¢ $12,706 18h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $10,126 28h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1,024 29h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 62¢ $10,115 42h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $10,209 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $156 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $23 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $186 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $19 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $19 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $621 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $18 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $53 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $53 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $1,774 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $19 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $7 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,954.03 · official $17,953.98 (match) · 1435 history records