Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:07:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
76 0x764f…64a1 sports 121 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (166 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,572 (+9%) realized +$4,113 · open −$541
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate43%30W / 40L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$335per market
Trades / day166.3pace
Fees−$294est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$8,346now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$2,386
other 28% +$1,357
tech 1% −$1
world 1% −$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (166 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +4.5% -5.5% 43% 33% +2.9%
≤30d 70 +4.5% -5.5% 43% 33% +2.9%
≤90d 70 +4.5% -5.5% 43% 33% +2.9%
all 70 +4.5% -5.5% 43% 33% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover166.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.5% 33% +2.9%
10% ← realistic here -14.5% 26% -7.0%
15% -22.8% 23% -16.0%
20% -30.3% 23% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$328 vs −$141 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$8,346
Realized+$4,113
Unrealized−$541
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses30 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$294
Open positions50
Markets (closed)70 / 121
History coverage2d
Avg bet$335
Trades / day166.3
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 50 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Under 54¢ 100¢ $645 $1,193 +$549 (+85%)
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $958 $1,003 +$45 (+5%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 62¢ 100¢ $600 $974 +$373 (+62%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Over 94¢ 100¢ $771 $820 +$49 (+6%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 100¢ $517 $725 +$208 (+40%)
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $535 $564 +$29 (+5%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 40¢ 100¢ $154 $385 +$231 (+150%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 90¢ 94¢ $340 $354 +$14 (+4%)
Stripe IPO before 2027? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $298 $269 −$29 (-10%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $249 $246 −$3 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 100¢ $126 $243 +$117 (+93%)
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Argentina 97¢ 100¢ $234 $242 +$8 (+3%)
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Argentina 16¢ 100¢ $27 $166 +$139 (+525%)
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 in June? No 79¢ 81¢ $146 $150 +$4 (+3%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 51¢ 65¢ $95 $121 +$26 (+28%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $115 $114 −$0 (-0%)
o1 FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 91¢ 92¢ $109 $110 +$1 (+1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 93¢ 90¢ $110 $106 −$3 (-3%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Yes 13¢ 100¢ $11 $84 +$73 (+646%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $82 $80 −$2 (-2%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score No 50¢ 50¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 49¢ 50¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $36 $37 +$1 (+4%)
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 69¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+3%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $18 +$53 +291%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $276 +$248 +90%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $127 −$4 -3%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $58 +$43 +73%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $166 +$187 +113%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $852 −$411 -48%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $59 −$57 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $22 −$21 -97%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $132 +$88 +67%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $89 +$348 +388%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $97 +$1 +1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $270 +$25 +9%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1,358 +$72 +5%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $857 +$732 +85%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $294 +$275 +94%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,888 −$8 -0%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -97%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $850B by June 30? Jun 16 $42 −$41 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $148 −$148 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $145 −$145 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 16 $247 −$11 -4%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3,193 −$688 -22%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 16 $55 −$55 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 16 $84 −$84 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $903 −$903 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $264 −$264 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $271 −$80 -30%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $121 +$8 +7%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1,373 +$1,158 +84%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2,492 +$760 +30%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $19 +$3 +13%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $172 +$298 +172%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $315 +$38 +12%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $28 −$27 -98%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 16 $5 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $25 +$193 +785%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 16 $209 +$6 +3%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4,240 −$1,403 -33%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $92 +$20 +21%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $21 +$22 +109%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $124 +$230 +185%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 49¢ $40 2m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 1¢ $1 7m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 93¢ $110 12m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 16m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 16m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 16m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 16m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 16m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 16m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 16m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 16m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 16m
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 12¢ $316 17m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $25 21m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $30 21m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $69 24m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 26m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 18¢ $16 27m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $654 27m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 23¢ $44 29m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 23¢ $47 29m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $86 34m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 18¢ $316 35m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $10 37m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $20 38m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 17¢ $26 39m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $287 45m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $41 54m
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,346.30 · official $8,339.34 (match) · 355 history records