Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:45:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x764f…6b8a sports 547 markets active 2h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,950 (-2%) realized −$2,029 · open +$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate74%399W / 138L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$340est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$389now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$178
7 days+$58
14 days−$24
30 days+$529
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$1,581
other 24% −$736
crypto 3% −$124
weather 1% +$26
world 0% −$70
politics 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +3.7% -6.1% 69% 41% -8.0%
≤30d 97 +3.5% -6.4% 69% 45% -6.3%
≤90d 389 -6.7% -15.6% 68% 43% -19.7%
all 537 -1.8% -11.1% 74% 44% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 44% -11.7%
10% -19.7% 30% -20.2%
15% -27.4% 20% -27.9%
20% -34.5% 13% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$134 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$389
Realized−$2,029
Unrealized+$79
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses399 / 138
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$340
Open positions5
Markets (closed)537 / 547
History coverage234d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 537 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 59¢ 100¢ $100 $169 +$69 (+69%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 30¢ 38¢ $100 $125 +$25 (+25%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-53%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $157 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 17? Jun 18 $101 +$19 +19%
Antoine Semenyo: 3+ shots Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 17 $35 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $75 +$1 +1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $152 +$75 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 16 $17 +$1 +4%
Takefusa Kubo: 2+ shots Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Darwin Núñez: 4+ shots Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas: O/U 163.5 Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 16 $90 −$90 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $102 +$107 +105%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 +$53 +52%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 15 $45 +$61 +136%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $51 +$31 +62%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $55 +$29 +53%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco: O/U 183.5 Jun 14 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $494 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $2 $0 -13%
Will Ezri Konsa be in England's Starting 11? Jun 14 $716 +$11 +2%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas: O/U 163.5 Jun 13 $102 +$102 +100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $144 +$15 +11%
Will Bukayo Saka be in England's Starting 11? Jun 13 $36 −$1 -2%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $101 +$53 +52%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $58 +$2 +3%
Raúl Jiménez: 3+ shots Jun 12 $51 +$30 +60%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 11 $258 +$5 +2%
Besiktas vs. Bahcesehir Koleji Jun 10 $102 +$80 +78%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 10 $153 +$2 +1%
Cholet vs. Paris Basketball: O/U 177.5 Jun 09 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $100 +$1 +1%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 09 $101 +$71 +70%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 09 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 08 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $101 +$3 +3%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $168 −$42 -25%
Anadolu Efes vs. Fenerbahce Jun 07 $101 +$72 +71%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 07 $299 −$53 -18%
Fenerbahce vs. Anadolu Efes: O/U 160.5 Jun 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 Jun 06 $101 −$101 -100%
Anadolu Efes vs. Fenerbahce Jun 06 $101 −$101 -100%
Besiktas vs. Bahcesehir Koleji Jun 06 $101 −$101 -100%
Bahcesehir Koleji vs. Besiktas Jun 06 $102 −$102 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $101 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 AND Will South Africa BUY 60¢ $101 11h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 92¢ $92 11h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 91¢ $72 11h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 91¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 91¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 91¢ $14 11h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 89¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 83¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 83¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 83¢ $62 12h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 82¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 82¢ $61 13h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 82¢ $5 13h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 30¢ $102 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $389.09 · official $389.09 (match) · 1530 history records