Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:34:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
76 0x764a…9175 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$44 (+32%) realized +$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +79% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +56% what you keep after slip
Net edge+56%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$141
sports 45% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+62.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +79.1% +62.0% 58% 50% +73.0%
≤30d 12 +79.1% +62.0% 58% 50% +73.0%
≤90d 12 +79.1% +62.0% 58% 50% +73.0%
all 12 +79.1% +62.0% 58% 50% +73.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +62.0% 50% +73.0%
10% +46.5% 50% +56.4%
15% +32.4% 50% +41.3%
20% +19.4% 50% +27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +91% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +79% · $-wt +91% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -62% → late +220% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$8 · ×3.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.26 per $1 lost it wins $4.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 +$57 +554%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $21 +$25 +118%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 +$25 +307%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 +$26 +124%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$2 +8%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $7 +$15 +210%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$13 +128%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 73¢ $67 1h
Colombia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 2h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $21 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $8 15h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $21 24h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 51¢ $22 24h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $20 25h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 87¢ $22 26h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 27h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $6 28h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 27¢ $5 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 36¢ $20 2d
Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists BUY Yes 21¢ $5 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $23 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records