Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:40:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
76 0x7649…0cd2 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$84 (+83%) realized +$65 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +71% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +49% what you keep after slip
Net edge+49%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$71
other 41% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+55.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +71.4% +55.0% 83% 67% +81.6%
≤30d 6 +71.4% +55.0% 83% 67% +81.6%
≤90d 6 +71.4% +55.0% 83% 67% +81.6%
all 6 +71.4% +55.0% 83% 67% +81.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +55.0% 67% +81.6%
10% +40.2% 67% +64.2%
15% +26.7% 67% +48.3%
20% +14.2% 67% +33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +101% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +71% · $-wt +101% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$2 · ×6.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×31.64 per $1 lost it wins $31.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$65
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage4d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 23¢ 54¢ $10 $23 +$13 (+133%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? No 43¢ 86¢ $10 $21 +$10 (+101%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $34 +$40 +119%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $10 +$20 +193%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $11 +$8 +75%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$7 +133%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 31m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 92¢ $51 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 43¢ $10 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 50¢ $20 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 30¢ $4 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 82¢ $24 5h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $11 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 34¢ $8 7h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 8h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 8h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 8h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 9h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 22h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 24h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $30 24h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $10 30h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $11 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.85 · official $45.85 (match) · 20 history records