Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:27:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7648…9752 crypto 1522 markets active 2h ago coverage 123d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 123d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,017 (-7%) realized −$1,017 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate58%887W / 634L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day22.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$80
7 days−$80
14 days−$180
30 days−$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$1,204
sports 1% −$102
other 1% −$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -34.3% -40.6% 50% 33% -46.4%
≤30d 7 -43.7% -49.1% 43% 29% -64.4%
≤90d 819 -7.2% -16.0% 54% 52% -23.2%
all 1521 -8.5% -17.2% 58% 48% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 48% -18.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 42% -26.0%
15% -32.4% 29% -33.2%
20% -39.0% 25% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,017
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses887 / 634
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1521 / 1522
History coverage123d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day22.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1521 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 −$7 -71%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 +$6 +29%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $71 −$71 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $26 +$7 +27%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $50 +$5 +9%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 15 $6 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 15 $6 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 15 $6 +$2 +32%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 15 $8 +$3 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 15 $39 +$11 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 15 $83 −$81 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 15 $20 −$5 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 15 $88 −$45 -51%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 15 $26 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 15 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 15 $72 −$72 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 15 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 15 $16 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 15 $7 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 15 $4 +$1 +14%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 15 $5 −$3 -54%
BNB Up or Down - May 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 15 $3 −$3 -94%
BNB Up or Down - May 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 15 $3 +$1 +22%
BNB Up or Down - May 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 15 $3 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 15 $2 $0 +5%
BNB Up or Down - May 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 15 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 15 $30 +$6 +18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 15 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 15 $28 +$10 +36%
BNB Up or Down - May 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 15 $4 +$2 +52%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 15 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 15 $32 −$31 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 15 $32 −$31 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 15 $15 +$16 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 15 $29 +$2 +7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 15 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 15 $25 +$6 +22%
BNB Up or Down - May 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 15 $4 +$1 +33%
BNB Up or Down - May 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 15 $20 +$2 +11%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 15 $6 +$4 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $26 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $20 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $20 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $0 26h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $33 26h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 78¢ $20 27h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $55 27h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 78¢ $6 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 29h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $50 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $101 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $50 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $6 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 38d
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $6 38d
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $6 38d
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 38d
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $83 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $6 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $43 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $28 38d
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3468 history records