Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:14:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7647…68b1 politics 172 markets active 0h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$997 (+0%) realized +$997 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate22%37W / 135L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$1,569per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$21
14 days−$110
30 days−$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$166
other 37% −$243
sports 11% +$1,396
world 3% −$38
culture 1% −$3
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% −$1
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 58 -0.9% -10.4% 12% 7% -9.6%
≤90d 115 -6.8% -15.7% 9% 5% -9.3%
all 172 +0.3% -9.2% 22% 10% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 10% -9.2%
10% -17.9% 10% -17.9%
15% -25.8% 10% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 8% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,903) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$9 · ×6.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$997
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses37 / 135
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)172 / 172
History coverage141d
Avg bet$1,569
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 172 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $585 −$1 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,789 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $3,592 −$4 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $164 +$1 +0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $4,682 −$6 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $4,430 −$4 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,046 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $6,536 −$6 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,670 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $3,468 −$4 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $6,694 −$10 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1,004 −$2 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 09 $831 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,887 −$3 -0%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $3,102 −$5 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,958 −$4 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,113 −$2 -0%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $85 +$68 +79%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $3,331 −$4 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,258 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $6,484 −$8 -0%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $35 −$35 -100%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 03 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,188 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 02 $1,278 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $341 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 02 $599 +$1 +0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $1,797 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $2,183 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $586 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $1,866 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $505 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $1,871 −$3 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $1,781 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $609 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,092 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $5,441 −$6 -0%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $48 +$60 +124%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $2,296 −$3 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $65 +$31 +48%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,258 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $584 2m
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $585 1h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $457 18h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $458 20h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $538 22h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $539 23h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $412 27h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $413 28h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $475 43h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $476 44h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $369 45h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $370 46h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $235 47h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $236 2d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,244 3d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,246 3d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,040 3d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,041 4d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,044 6d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,046 6d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,257 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,259 7d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,148 8d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,149 8d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,141 9d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,143 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,044 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,046 9d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,047 9d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,048 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 593 history records