trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 5 | +0.3% | -9.2% | 100% | 0% | -9.2% |
| all | 20 | -4.8% | -13.8% | 95% | 0% | -9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.8% | 0% | -9.6% |
| 10% | -22.1% | 0% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -29.6% | 0% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -36.5% | 0% | -33.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 100¢ | 99¢ | $46 | $46 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on June 16? | Jun 16 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? | Jun 01 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Austin be 73°F or below on April 28? | May 18 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | Apr 27 | $45 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? | Mar 14 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on February | Mar 05 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on February | Feb 28 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? | Feb 26 | $44 | $0 | +1% |
| US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? | Feb 25 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | Feb 07 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C or higher on January 21 | Jan 26 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 20? | Jan 21 | $1,108 | +$2 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on January 22? | Jan 20 | $1,156 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 20? | Jan 19 | $1,155 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Solana dip to $120 January 12-18? | Jan 19 | $2,295 | +$8 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 January 12-18? | Jan 18 | $1,149 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 18? | Jan 17 | $364 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,700 on January 18? | Jan 16 | $1,138 | +$7 | +1% |
| Infinex FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Jan 07 | $28 | −$28 | -100% |