Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:11:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7646…75f4 crypto 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 369d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$66 (-1%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate39%22W / 34L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 25% −$3
politics 24% −$2
tech 16% −$2
world 13% −$1
economics 10% −$1
culture 7% −$1
sports 3% −$59
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +41.3% +27.8% 50% 50% +17.0%
≤30d 3 +27.5% +15.3% 33% 33% +3.8%
≤90d 26 +3.0% -6.8% 35% 8% -10.2%
all 56 +1.4% -8.2% 39% 4% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 4% -10.1%
10% -17.0% 4% -18.7%
15% -25.0% 4% -26.6%
20% -32.4% 4% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

369d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses22 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage369d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Scotland 50¢ 50¢ $22 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww Jun 24 $15 +$13 +83%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 24 $28 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $43 $0 -0%
Will Jiri Lehecka win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 23 $740 −$1 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 23 $745 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $755 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $50 on May 20? May 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.00 on May 19? May 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 202 May 18 $752 −$1 -0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day May 18 $200 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $600B and $700B at market close on May 18 $568 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on May 12? May 15 $14 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 15 $57 +$111 +197%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $32 −$31 -98%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $640 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 11 $685 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 11 $675 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? May 11 $19 $0 +0%
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) May 08 $154 −$152 -99%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April? May 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Con Apr 25 $800 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 25 $815 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 10? Apr 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 09 $50 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 03 $32 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on January 22? Feb 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $160 on January 22? Feb 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Luis Esteban Amador Jiménez win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential Jan 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.40 on January 7? Jan 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on January 7? Jan 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on November 25? Dec 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 25? Dec 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Nov 07 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Nov 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $170 on September 15? Oct 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Bachelet win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 27 $35 $0 -0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Sep 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 12 $36 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? Aug 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Aug 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jul 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 25 $27 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in June? Jul 25 $8 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 25 $41 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 25 $46 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $28 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Scotland 50¢ $22 1h
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $43 27d
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww BUY Jaqueline Amorim 54¢ $15 27d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 27d
Will Jiri Lehecka win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $739 32d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 32d
Will Jiri Lehecka win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $410 32d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 32d
Will Jiri Lehecka win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $330 32d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $718 32d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $755 32d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $741 32d
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 202 SELL Yes 1¢ $9 37d
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 202 SELL No 99¢ $742 37d
Will the price of Solana be less than $50 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $15 37d
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day SELL No 100¢ $200 37d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $600B and $700B at market close on SELL No 100¢ $567 37d
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.00 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $5 37d
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day BUY No 100¢ $200 37d
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.00 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $7 37d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $600B and $700B at market close on BUY No 100¢ $568 37d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY Aurora Gaming 47¢ $32 43d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on May 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 44d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $639 44d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on May 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 44d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $640 44d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY 9z 33¢ $57 44d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.43 · official $21.43 (match) · 141 history records