Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x7645…8c1d crypto 314 markets active 6d ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate55%172W / 142L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$9
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -25.9% -32.9% 19% 19% -23.8%
≤30d 311 -0.7% -10.2% 55% 47% -10.3%
≤90d 314 -1.3% -10.7% 55% 47% -10.8%
all 314 -1.3% -10.7% 55% 47% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 47% -10.8%
10% -19.3% 36% -19.4%
15% -27.1% 26% -27.2%
20% -34.2% 7% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses172 / 142
Open positions0
Markets (closed)314 / 314
History coverage32d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 314 Trades
no open positions (39 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 663 history records