Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:43:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
76 0x7644…6231 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2 (+1%) realized +$4 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$12
sports 16% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +4.5% -5.5% 29% 29% -11.2%
≤30d 7 +4.5% -5.5% 29% 29% -11.2%
≤90d 7 +4.5% -5.5% 29% 29% -11.2%
all 12 +0.4% -9.2% 33% 17% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 17% -12.5%
10% -17.9% 17% -20.9%
15% -25.8% 8% -28.5%
20% -33.1% 8% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$7 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage154d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$3 -61%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 +$3 +25%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $11 −$10 -95%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $11 +$49 +463%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -96%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Mar 23 $20 $0 +0%
Zama FDV above $400M one day after launch? Feb 03 $8 −$2 -28%
Moonbirds FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jan 30 $1 $0 +4%
Zama auction clearing price above $0.03? Jan 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will Perena launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jan 25 $5 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $35 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $46 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 8h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 9h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 9h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $11 28h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 31h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 32h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 42h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $21 2d
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $20 95d
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $20 98d
Zama FDV above $400M one day after launch? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 143d
Zama FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 148d
Zama FDV above $400M one day after launch? SELL Yes 76¢ $4 148d
Moonbirds FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 149d
Zama FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 87¢ $4 149d
Zama auction clearing price above $0.03? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 151d
Zama auction clearing price above $0.03? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 151d
Will Perena launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $5 151d
Will Perena launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 153d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.07 · official $78.07 (match) · 25 history records